Shorter Standby Strains AND Lightning Lanes at Disney World?!

Walt Disney World has made main adjustments to queueing during the last 6 months. This publish combines wait instances knowledge for standby strains and stats for Lightning Lane availability with our personal anecdotal experiences with each plus ‘seems like’ crowds each single month since June to color an image of how issues have modified within the second half of 2024.

Let’s begin with crowd ranges as measured by wait instances knowledge. Suffice to say, it’s been a down yr for Walt Disney World with a gradual lower in month-to-month crowd ranges between February and October. In a standard yr, there could be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which a summer season uptrend.

As an alternative, this yr noticed a gradual and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Could to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! It was a gradual summer season at Orlando’s theme parks, as we mentioned at size in Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World.

Unsurprisingly, August continued that development and September accelerated it. That a lot is to be anticipated–these two months being the slowest of the yr occurs each yr. On this case, there was an 8-week stretch in there that was the slowest since 2021, although. So even quieter than regular.

In a standard yr, October would buck that development in an enormous method. Not your complete month, however fall breaks and the second half of the month would have a enough affect to make October the busiest month since spring break season. This yr, October did see an uptrend–breaking the multi-month downtrend–however barely. A giant a part of that may be chalked as much as hurricanes, although, and Disney itself indicated the storms value them $130 million in cancellations.

November was up as in comparison with October, which can also be typical–but it surely noticed a much bigger bounce, doubtless because of the aforementioned hurricanes miserable attendance in October. Nonetheless, November nonetheless fell in need of what’s regular for the month. And though December simply started, the good cash could be on it being the busiest month of 2024. Not due to the following couple of weeks, however as a result of the ultimate two can be so excessive above the remainder of the yr that they’ll elevate all of December.

It’s price noting that each one of that is wait time tendencies inside 2024.

We often do year-over-year comparisons, that means we’d consider November 2024 vs. November 2023 (and so on.) as a result of it’s the extra significant comparability that accounts for the seasonality of attendance tendencies. When doing that, each month besides February and March had been down year-over-year, and people two had been inside 1 minute of the prior-year. All different months have been down, some significantly so.

Additionally price noting is that 2023 was principally down as in comparison with 2022, which was the peak of pent-up demand. This has been acknowledged by the corporate itself throughout earnings calls, so it’s not likely in dispute. In reality, Disney CEO Bob Iger has extra of much less mentioned as a lot and warned traders of attendance softness and demand moderation by 2025.

Beforehand, the corporate cautioned of a slowdown at Walt Disney World final yr, too, attributing this to the top of revenge journey, lapping the fiftieth Anniversary, and poor climate. With that mentioned, the corporate isn’t saying there’s been a large drop in attendance. On the contrary, the newest quarter noticed “comparable” customer numbers, suggesting attendance was flat or solely down barely. The wait instances present a steeper drop.

The wait instances knowledge is what it’s, and I don’t actually assume it’s up for debate. Opposite to some anecdotal reviews, you’re virtually sure to come across decrease wait instances this yr versus 2023, to not point out as contrasted with 2022.

However as we frequently level out, crowd ranges as decided by wait instances (an imperfect measure, however the one worthwhile one) usually are not the identical as ‘seems like’ crowds or congestion, that are extra corresponding to attendance (nonetheless imperfect, however nearer). In quite a lot of circumstances, wait instances don’t inform the complete story. That’s true yearly. We predict that’s extra so the case in late 2024 than ever.

What if the adjustments to queueing insurance policies have precipitated decrease wait instances which might be disproportionate with the lower in attendance? That crowds have solely dropped dramatically year-over-year if utilizing wait instances as their measure?

My principle is that precisely this has occurred.

This may be completely in step with Disney’s quarterly reviews, which have (typically) talked about declines in attendance and lodge occupancy, however not practically to the diploma of wait instances.

The corporate’s monetary reviews are, as anticipated, about metrics comparable to earnings and per visitor spending–not wait instances. If attendance had been down in comparable measure with wait instances, we’d count on near double-digit drops. That the majority definitely has not occurred.

Which means there has virtually essentially been a divergence between posted wait instances and seems like crowds. Attendance can’t have dropped by as a lot as wait instances recommend. If it had, the Home Parks & Experiences would doubtless replicate that in its income and working earnings.

As an alternative, Disney Experiences simply posted document income and working earnings for the complete yr–that means it outperformed even the banner yr of pent-up demand (at the least financially).

This kind of comports with my anecdotal observations about Walt Disney World crowds. I’ve spent about 5-7 days every month within the parks since June, which clearly means I’m not seeing daily at each park. Even when I had been, it’s unimaginable to be all over the place directly, and congestion will be extremely variable.

Nonetheless, my perspective (and once more, this can be a sweeping generalization) is that the parks usually are not as busy as they had been in 2022 and principally down as in comparison with final yr, however not practically as gradual because the wait instances recommend. If I needed to estimate crowd ranges primarily based purely on what I noticed and felt–and didn’t have a look at a single posted wait time–I’d fairly constantly be overshooting by 2-4 crowd ranges.

Truthfully, I can’t consider a single day I’ve visited within the second half of the yr that I perceived as much less busy than the group ranges as dictated by wait instances. It’s virtually all the time been the precise reverse. There have been loads of 1/10 to three/10 dates that I’d’ve guessed had been nearer to five/10 primarily based on merely strolling across the parks. However wait instances instructed a really completely different story.

To that time, my expertise with standby strains since June has been a breeze. Posted wait instances have been manageable, they’re often inflated, and the strains are constantly-moving. In fact, I’m principally not doing rides at peak hours when waits are the worst, however I did do TRON Lightcycle Run experience testing in any respect hours over a vacation weekend and didn’t as soon as wait even 60 minutes for it. (Posted wait instances ranged from 35 to 120 minutes.)

In reality, my longest waits of your complete yr have been for…Tiana’s Bayou Journey. A experience that has a digital queue. However that’s as a result of it breaking down repeatedly, and my knack for by some means managing to queue up simply earlier than that occurs. That’s actually past the scope of this publish, however I nonetheless discover it amusing that I’ve waited in line probably the most for an attraction that…isn’t purported to have a line.

One factor to remember right here is that low crowds doesn’t imply that each attraction is a walk-on. Folks typically hear 1/10 or 2/10 crowd ranges and assume that’ll be the case. As an alternative, it means you may encounter a 65-75 minute common wait time for the most well-liked rides, versus 90-120 minute wait instances. Since these numbers are averages, it additionally means increased peaks and decrease lows.

So what’s inflicting these disproportionately decrease wait instances?

My sturdy perception is that the hot button is a decrease utilization price of the Lightning Lanes. Which means fewer company are skipping the road, and are as a substitute within the common line (or doing one thing else fully). This may clarify why the standby strains are transferring extra fluidly and why wait instances are decrease–as a result of fewer company are within the Lightning Lanes and processing that backlog isn’t inflicting standby to come back to a standstill.

Beforehand, customary working process referred to as for a roughly 4:1 or 80:20 ratio of Lightning Lane to standby company on the the attraction’s merge level. Which means that for each one individual admitted into the load space (or wherever merge happens) by the common queue, 4 persons are pulled from the Lightning Lane line. This was the baseline–the ratio solely will get much less favorable for the standby line!

Anecdotally, my expertise whereas within the standby strains is certainly not that 4 persons are being pulled from the Lightning Lane for each one visitor from the standby line. I’m not on the market counting the folks passing, however I wouldn’t be in the slightest degree shocked if the numbers skewed barely in favor of standby. It’s definitely nothing like the ten:1 ratio in favor of Lightning Lanes that may occur throughout peak instances.

Since I’m doing technique subject testing as a part of solo analysis journeys, I’m often standing in line on my own. And since I apparently prefer to torture myself, I’ve developed a behavior of watching the Lightning Lane visitor stream to get an concept of how and when the standby line will transfer. Up to now, this has been needlessly nervousness inducing. Undoubtedly not beneficial, because it’s no enjoyable to see a gradual stream of individuals passing as you stand nonetheless.

That hasn’t been the case within the final 6 months. I’ve seen it on a number of completely different sights, however the place it was most pronounced was, once more, throughout my TRON Lightcycle Run testing. I used to be truthfully shocked that, regardless of Lightning Lane Single Go being completely bought out, the standby line was manageable and transferring. I had skilled a lot, a lot worse when TRON was utilizing a digital queue final yr.

It’s not simply TRON, both. There are a number of different sights that used to often use overflow queues for the Lightning Lanes. There have been instances when Peter Pan’s Flight would again up previous PhilharMagic, Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice would have a number of switchbacks (by way of tape on the bottom), House Mountain had a line out to the TTA monitor, and so on.

This will nonetheless occur from time-to-time, particularly on peak days or after rides return from extreme downtime. Nevertheless it was beforehand occurring with regularity, even on low season days final September or reasonable days this winter. I haven’t seen Lightning Lanes that constantly backed up within the final 6 months.

(Be aware that this solely applies to Walt Disney World. This downside nonetheless happens at Disneyland with a point of regularity. I don’t assume it’s fairly as dangerous as earlier than, but it surely’s nothing just like the night-and-day distinction at Walt Disney World.)

To that time, the reason for that is not Lightning Lane Multi-Go or Single Go being considerably much less common than their predecessors. On the contrary, Lightning Lane Single Go is promoting out way more typically than Particular person Lightning Lanes did, even in low to reasonable crowd ranges.

The doubtless causes for this are past the scope of this publish, but it surely’s one thing we deal with at size in Lightning Lane Single Go is Promoting Out FAST! The circumstances haven’t actually modified since that publish was revealed. The title there actually says all of it, however suffice to say, a number of of those LLSPs are actually absolutely booked up prematurely or have restricted same-day availability.

We’ve seen one thing comparable with increased demand and extra restricted stock for Lightning Lane Multi-Go. That was coated in What’s Up with Lightning Lane Multi Go Availability at Walt Disney World? The circumstances have modified since that publish was revealed, as LLMPs have gotten simpler to e book–however nonetheless extra aggressive than Genie+ Lightning Lanes.

Our preliminary rationalization for this within the days that adopted the launch of Lightning Lane Multi-Go and Single Go was throttled availability. That made sense initially, as the brand new system was model new and Disney was not sure of what to anticipate, so that they doubtless wished to slowly open the valve on Lightning Lane stock.

Within the months which have adopted, this appears to have modified. Whereas it stays true that there will be restricted availability–particularly for Single Go–it’s not as dangerous as earlier than. Furthermore, our experiences in testing Lightning Lane Multi-Go have demonstrated that same-day availability (or experience reservation refills) is pretty sturdy.

At this level, it looks as if demand is pretty sturdy for Lightning Lanes, but in addition that Walt Disney World is doing a reasonably good job of assembly this. As for why demand would stay sturdy, our greatest rationalization is heightened FOMO and FUD–two of my favourite “facronyms.”

Since company are not shopping for Lightning Lanes same-day, it’s tougher to evaluate the necessity for them and regulate accordingly throughout your trip. As such, there’s doubtless an inclination to “over-purchase” Lightning Lanes as in comparison with underneath the previous system. (One other topic that’s past the scope of this publish, but it surely’s price studying our latest publish: When You Ought to Skip Lightning Lane Multi-Go.)

As we’ve additionally famous, Lightning Lane Premier Go additionally hasn’t actually moved the needle on utilization.

This was to be anticipated, because the audience for LLPP is exceedingly restricted. It’s my understanding that fewer than 1% of company have been buying Lightning Lane Premier Go on the overwhelming majority of days. That’ll be increased round Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve when crowds are increased, particularly at Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios, but it surely’s nonetheless unlikely to eclipse 2% of all company.

That is exactly why Walt Disney World expanded eligibility for Lightning Lane Premier Go. Not solely is it being utilized by a really low proportion of company, however they’ve the surplus bandwidth within the Lightning Lanes to open it as much as extra company with out the system even coming near its breaking level. The underside line is that Walt Disney World has expanded its paid line-skipping techniques and so they’re nonetheless performing much better than earlier than. How can we make sense of that?

The elephant within the room is that the overhaul of Incapacity Entry Service to scale back abuse and misuse is what’s having the largest affect on each wait instances and decreased utilization of Lightning Lanes. I hesitate to even broach this subject because it has actual human penalties and has been heartbreaking to learn the tales of DAS denials.

Nonetheless, it’s all however sure that the DAS overhaul isn’t only a contributing issue, however is the first motive for shorter standby strains and fewer Lightning Lane utilization. This was one of many driving forces behind the crackdown, so it makes full sense. All the things we had heard even previous to the overhaul announcement urged DAS utilization had exploded and was the first explanation for utilization of Lightning Lanes, not paid gross sales.

As we’ve mentioned repeatedly in different contexts, queueing is a zero-sum recreation. This isn’t even theoretical–Disney has been sued over lodging for disabled company prior to now, and these stats have come out throughout discovery and testimony (see A.L. vs. Walt Disney Parks & Resorts, US). A check research throughout that exposed that DAS customers skilled, on common, 45% extra sights than these with out DAS.

Remember the fact that this research would’ve been carried out a number of years in the past, underneath the previous free FastPass+ system and previous to the explosion of TikTok and Fb teams that inspired and facilitated abuse. It stands to motive that company who’re truly disabled and want DAS are in a position to expertise fewer (in all probability far fewer) sights than fraudsters who recreation the system to primarily create a free FastPass exploit.

In fact, this additionally comes on the expense of disabled company who want DAS with a purpose to take pleasure in Walt Disney World and are being unfairly denied as a part of the crackdown. Whereas it’s good to see the abusers being denied, there’s additionally collateral harm to this. Many company who’re truly disabled have been swept up within the crackdown–it’s unlucky there’s no technique to narrowly goal the abusers. I gained’t fake to know what the “good” answer is–however I do know that the established order is devastating, and that Disney can and may do higher.

Nonetheless, that’s additionally past the scope of this publish. That is about shorter standby strains and fewer Lightning Lane utilization regardless of demand staying sturdy. And given all the above, I have no idea how one can reconcile all of that with out attributing it to the DAS overhaul. There are undoubtedly different contributing components (shifting demographics, parks persevering with to revive misplaced capability, and so on), however the main driver is undoubtedly DAS.

Finally, that’s our principle as to why standby strains are shorter and sooner transferring on the identical time that Lightning Lane utilization has decreased, even with demand for Multi-Go and Single Go showing pretty sturdy and experience reservation stock being wholesome. This strikes us as the one believable conclusion primarily based Disney’s quarterly outcomes, wait instances knowledge, and our intensive anecdotal experiences.

As we’ve talked about earlier than, there was an inside want inside Walt Disney World to higher stability the pursuits of company utilizing standby strains and Lightning Lanes, and that seems to have been achieved. However once more, we’d be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge that this occurred with disabled company because the collateral harm. It’s saddening that this has occurred, and we nonetheless imagine Walt Disney World may narrowly tailor the system in a method that targets abusers (who had been a major variety of customers).

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YOUR THOUGHTS

When you’ve visited Walt Disney World within the final 6 months, what’s been your expertise with standby strains, Lightning Lanes, and the stream of visitors in each versus earlier visits? How about as in contrast with in-park congestion? Have you ever seen any discernible variations? Would you suggest LLMP or simply advise sticking to standby given these tendencies? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!