It’s been a bizarre yr for Walt Disney World crowds. Wait instances have been rising year-over-year in 2024, reversing month-to-month declines for the primary time since January 2023. This publish takes a take a look at potential elements why this winter and now early Spring Break season have been busier than the identical dates final yr.
That is one thing we began discussing just lately in Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024. As of that crowd report, common year-to-date wait instances for 2024 have been tied with 2022 (41 minutes) and up significantly as in comparison with final yr (37 minutes). With Spring Break getting off to an incredibly sturdy begin, 2024 may quickly pull into the lead because the #1 worst yr ever at Walt Disney World for wait time ranges/crowds.
That actually was not what we anticipated. Our forecast was for pent-up demand to proceed exhausting itself, a course of that had not but absolutely performed out as of the tip of final yr. As such, we anticipated crowd ranges to drop barely via at the least the primary half of 2024. As an alternative, the other is occurring. We’ve already theorized in regards to the why of that, however this provides extra prospects, discusses them in higher element, and makes an attempt to deal with the probability that crowds will proceed to extend in 2024…
To start out, there are a number of elements for the bounceback that pertain to the economic system and aren’t actually distinctive to Walt Disney World. I don’t wish to gloss over these since they’re in all probability among the many greatest predictors of theme park attendance. However on the similar time, I do know that is going to be lengthy and we’ve already mentioned all of these items.
In a nutshell, fears of a recession are diminishing, inflation is easing, actual wages are rising, client confidence is bettering, and the inventory market is up year-to-date and has reached new report highs. It’s in all probability not profound perception to say that persons are extra more likely to go to Walt Disney World in the event that they be ok with their monetary circumstances and their portfolios are wanting good.
It was an identical story, to some extent, a pair years in the past when markets have been booming. And who is aware of, perhaps there’s overlap between Nvidia lovers, Bitcoin maximalists, and Walt Disney World fandom. That may clarify a few of the exuberance and attendance!
One other previously-discussed chance is that 2024 crowds is perhaps a slight ‘reverberation’ after the pent-up demand of 2022. That 2023 was the ‘break’ yr for households that go to Walt Disney World semi-frequently, they usually’re returning in 2024. Consider it like a ripple or the accordion impact in site visitors jams.
That is price mentioning as a result of, in the case of crowds at Walt Disney World, the massive story in the previous few years has been pent-up demand. First the arrival of it, then the exhaustion of it. Now, it might appear, a brand new ‘wave’ of it. These elements above and beneath could also be fueling “re-revenge journey,” a time period we made up that has a sure understated stupidity to it.
We will speculate and theorize in regards to the causes, however it’s pretty plain that this is taking place. For one, the wait instances information displays as a lot. Whereas it’s doable to elucidate this away to some extent with prospects similar to extra experience downtime or stronger Genie+ gross sales, I’m skeptical both of these (or related) elements differ immediately versus one yr in the past. And that’s what we’re taking a look at.
Past that, there are different stats that replicate related tendencies. In keeping with Orlando Worldwide Airport, passenger site visitors elevated by 6.5% for January (the final month for which there’s information), with home passenger site visitors up 5.2% and worldwide site visitors up 15.8%. Go to Orlando has reported that resort bookings for the primary quarter of 2024 are outpacing final yr by over 5%, and advance airline ticket gross sales into Orlando are additionally up within the first quarter of 2024 by roughly 10%.
Go to Orlando forecasts resort bookings to be up 4% for the complete yr, with additional will increase in 2025. That may put each years forward of 2022, the height of pent-up demand. The group expects this to be fueled largely by worldwide journey, which is projected to return to 2019 ranges for the primary time. That is all notable as final yr was down throughout the board, with decreases in income and occupancy as a result of ~2 million fewer out-of-state guests to Florida.
Because it pertains to Walt Disney World, listed below are some monkey wrenches which have been thrown into the combination that might account for the year-to-date will increase in crowds…
Worldwide Vacationers & Teams – Winter is the ‘summer season’ trip season for South America, and there was a time when it felt like Brazilian tour teams have been the dominant demographic throughout the first few months of the yr. This was particularly pronounced popping out of the Nice Recession up till 2014 (earlier than the Brazilian financial disaster), when crowds have been decrease as an entire making South American crowds proportionally higher. And like cheerleaders, visitors usually tend to discover teams of people that stick out for no matter cause.
With Brazil’s economic system as soon as once more bettering, it looks like these tour teams are as soon as once more showing in increased quantity. This isn’t a new-for-2024 pattern. I first observed tour teams returning in full power final winter. Nevertheless it seems like they’re again in even fuller power this yr, with extra vibrant luggage, flags, and shirts.
Lagging pent-up demand for worldwide journey is one aspect of this, however in all probability not the complete story. I’d add that Walt Disney World is doing extra to entice worldwide vacationers to return with ticket and different offers. It’s additionally doable that worldwide guests from nations with weak foreign money (relative to the sturdy greenback) have now gotten used to this because the ‘new regular’ and are not suspending visits.
In fact, these are simply theories. Regardless of the precise causes for a rise in worldwide vacationers, it’s taking place. Though Walt Disney World doesn’t launch customer demographics (or any statistics), the airport does–and people present worldwide site visitors up considerably. It’s protected to say MCO numbers are a very good proxy for WDW.
Conventions Return – The conventioneer can normally be noticed touring in herds, sometimes consisting of middle-aged males wearing apparel starting from nation membership to funeral-casual. Their monotone wardrobe is usually punctuated by Patagonia vests, and naturally, the compulsory lanyard.
I’ve already logged two stays at Coronado Springs in 2024 and on each of these events, the resort was internet hosting conventions. This isn’t out of the peculiar–internet hosting these people and their occasions is the entire cause Gran Destino Tower was constructed! Enterprise journey will regain 95% of its 2019 stage in 2024, up from 89% final yr, the U.S. Journey Affiliation forecasts. The group additionally notes that it will differ by sector primarily based on views of the economic system–with the markets close to all-time highs, the quantity may climb increased. (For worldwide journey, quantity is projected to be at 98% of 2019 ranges this yr, up from 84% final yr.)
Actually, I’ve by no means gotten a very good learn on how conventioneers do or don’t impression attendance at Walt Disney World. As mentioned just lately in Why Are Walt Disney World Resorts Offered Out in 2024?, there are eventualities, in concept, the place sure demographics occupying resort rooms may lower crowds if these visitors are less-inclined to go to the parks and successfully ‘block’ others from reserving. In fact, that’s theoretical and assumes the room would’ve been booked by another person fairly than sitting empty. It additionally assumes that the choice occupant wouldn’t have stayed off-site.
What’s additionally tough about conventioneers is that, whereas they’re straightforward to identify, their households usually are not. It’s solely doable {that a} good share of those enterprise vacationers are bringing their spouses and kids, and they’re visiting the parks whereas the conventioneer learns enterprise stuff. Completely anecdotal, however this may monitor to some extent, as I observed surprisingly busy buses at Coronado Springs even because the resort hosted conventions.
One closing factor that’s not theoretical is the conventioneers’ impression on EPCOT. Not solely is that this the park they’re most inclined to go to (each individually and as a part of group actions), however I’ve observed a number of evenings the place my favourite fireworks spots have been blocked off for personal occasions. This might be issues apart from conventions, however regardless of the cause, it’s taking place extra steadily and in additional areas. This alone makes me assured in saying that Disney Conferences & Occasions is seeing a rebound and teams are a higher contributor to crowds in at the least some parks, on some dates.
Youth Sporting Teams – That is like conventions, however for kids. By that, I imply that occasions hosted on the ESPN Huge World of Sports activities have an identical dynamic–outsized impression on sure inns, however probably far much less on crowds for the reason that contributors are there for a goal apart from parks.
The distinction is that youngsters, typically talking, like Walt Disney World greater than 40-something businessmen. So it’s in all probability protected to imagine youth sporting occasions do impression crowds greater than conventions. With that stated, my perspective is that the diploma to which the cheer, dance, and different sports activities contribute to crowding is massively exaggerated. Anybody who has ever been in line for Haunted Mansion behind a number of dozen tween cheerleaders in all probability vehemently disagrees, however that’s exactly the purpose. That kind of expertise sticks in recollections (belief me, been there!) and is anecdotally overweighted in consequence.
No matter all that, I additionally don’t actually assume youth sporting occasions are making a lot of a distinction on 2024 crowd ranges versus final yr. The ESPN Huge World of Sports activities calendar was jam-packed final winter and spring, too. I don’t actually assume there’s a lot lagged pent-up demand right here–definitely not as a lot as conventions. Which means that, even when we disagree about how a lot these teams trigger extra crowding, we will presumably agree that the impression was roughly equal each this yr and final.
Snowbirds – These visitors have been particularly straightforward to identify again in January, as the amount of Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Buffalo Payments group attire was unattainable to overlook. There have been additionally a startling variety of hilarious, extremely smart and enticing folks within the parks, and all of them have been sporting Detroit Lions gear.
None of that is actually something new; Chiefs and Payments followers–plus Saints throughout Mardi Gras–all the time dominate. (The identical was once true of the Bears and Giants once they have been good; I assume it was additionally the case for the Jets…again when Joe Namath performed.) Nonetheless, it appeared extra widespread than any yr since 2020.
Walt Disney World and Florida as an entire being well-liked with snowbirds additionally isn’t a 2024 growth. It’s doable that guests from Northern and Midwestern states with the liberty to journey throughout off-peak months are selecting the winter and upcoming shoulder season over late summer season and early fall on account of final yr’s brutally excessive warmth and humidity. It’s additionally solely doable that I merely observed extra visitors from these states. At most, this in all probability is a minor contributing issue and never a significant explanation for crowding.
South Florida – Comparable situation as snowbirds, besides coming from the wrong way and in-state. One factor we observed throughout in the beginning of the post-reopening interval was a excessive share of visitors at each Walt Disney World and Common Orlando coming from South Florida. (They’re considerably straightforward to identify for a similar cause as snowbirds and extra.) On the time, I assumed that was as a result of reductions, comfort, and a comparative absence of vacationers from different areas.
To no matter extent that is taking place in 2024, I couldn’t clarify it. Possibly extra advertising–tv and radio advertisements–geared toward South Florida? Ticket offers do now embody weekends, which positively is extra conducive to fast journeys to Central Florida.
Ticket Offers – Walt Disney World has launched extra ticket offers up to now in 2024 than as much as this similar level final yr. Whereas technically true, that’s barely deceptive. A type of is a water park ticket deal and two of the opposite ones simply got here out this week and aren’t legitimate till April.
The extra salient level, at the least for Walt Disney World crowds via the primary two and a half months of the yr, is that the annual winter and early spring low cost for Floridians included weekends in 2024 however was weekdays-only final yr. That’s a giant distinction for these with 9 to five jobs or faculty schedules.
I’d be keen to wager that Walt Disney World bought considerably extra Florida resident tickets in 2024 in consequence. That is additionally a giant cause why Saturday and Sundays are not the least-busy days of the week at Walt Disney World, which is was a pattern that began final yr.
Wanting ahead, there’s a brand new Florida resident ticket in addition to the Multi-day ‘Magic’ Ticket for most of the people, each of that are legitimate from April via late September 2024. These ticket offers usually are not unprecedented–each have been additionally supplied final yr. However there’s one other key distinction, identical to there was for the primary Floridian ticket deal of the yr: they’re legitimate over a month sooner than final yr, and have been introduced nearly a month earlier than that.
This most evident end result is that this rising late Spring Break and shoulder season crowds, because the ticket offers will likely be legitimate for these dates whereas they weren’t final yr. Moreover, they might improve crowds throughout the board, as the sooner advance discover permits folks to plan round these tickets (very true with out-of-state vacationers and the Magic ticket) and take journeys once they in any other case wouldn’t have achieved so.
The Magic ticket was extremely well-liked final yr, however from what we noticed, that was with individuals who already had holidays deliberate. The longer lead time and eligibility window will increase the probability that individuals will take journeys as a result of this yr’s model of the identical–which means it’ll induce extra demand.
2019 Low cost Playbook – Since late final yr, we’ve observed that Walt Disney World has been pulling from what we name the “2019 low cost playbook.” The particular provides launched since then have been strikingly much like these from 2019, which was the yr of the pre-Star Wars Droop. The truth is, a few of the percentages have been barely superior to what was supplied in 2019–and much better than any yr since then.
This has noticeably been the case with the room-only provides, however it extends far past that. Even extra obscure ones like PIN Codes and Bouncebacks and now Priceline Categorical Offers are all resembling what was supplied in 2019. Then there’s fan-favorite Free Eating, which made its triumphant return for the primary time since 2019–when the low cost was supplied in three waves.
The extent to which all of this has had or will have an effect on crowd ranges within the theme parks is debatable. For one factor, nearly all of Walt Disney World park visitors come from off-site. For one more factor, these reductions usually are not supplied out of generosity, however to forestall a drop in resort occupancy–they’re basically an offset, or geared toward sustaining the established order. Whereas low occupancy would possible sign low crowds within the parks, the other isn’t essentially true–we’d have to know what the numbers are like at third occasion inns round Central Florida (amongst different issues).
On this regard, previous precedent with Free Eating is instructive. This promotion has traditionally been supplied throughout the low season, and has achieved an amazing job serving to Walt Disney World fill resort rooms. Even because it elevated occupancy and made Advance Eating Reservations far more troublesome to attain, low crowd ranges endured. That ought to go to point out that on-site resort and sit-down eating capability is a subset of park capability.
Whereas I feel Walt Disney World obtained caught a bit flat-footed final yr, scrambled to tug levers (together with reductions) to entice folks to go to and was normal behind the curve, I nonetheless don’t assume this yr’s extra aggressive hotel-centric reductions will contribute a lot to crowding. Now the aforementioned ticket offers are one other story solely.
Park Coverage Modifications – Initially of 2024, Walt Disney World largely eradicated theme park reservations, introduced again the Disney Eating Plan, and resumed limitless all-day Park Hopping. Subsequent up is pre-arrival Lightning Lane experience reservations, a system that ought to intently resemble FastPass+ (however paid), which is wanting extra like a summer season launch at this level.
Each one among these items was necessary to sure followers. The absence of which was a ‘deal-breaker’ with out which they wouldn’t return. We all know this as a result of loads of folks instructed us as a lot. Whereas I received’t fall into the entice of over-representing readers of websites like this one within the park-going inhabitants as an entire, there have been at the least some followers nonetheless sitting on the sidelines till these items returned.
By way of normal crowd dynamics, the largest change is the return of all-day Park Hopping. That is solely anecdotal (once more), however I’ve achieved a number of Early Entry and twine drop mornings at Animal Kingdom and left earlier than midday…and observed traces on the bus stops for different parks. So I do know I’m not the one individual ending DAK early and bouncing to different parks, as a result of I’ve actually seen it.
EPCOT Overhaul Ends – The park seeing the biggest year-over-year improve in wait instances information in 2024 has been EPCOT, which ended its busiest 6-week stretch within the final yr–and one among its worst stretches since 2022–in late February. If wait instances information via the primary week of Spring Break season is any indication, EPCOT simply began one other stretch of excessive crowds. EPCOT is outperforming all different parks at Walt Disney World proper now (relative to 2023–not in absolute phrases).
It’s actually form of wild. EPCOT debuted Remy’s Ratatouille Journey, Harmonious, Beacons of Magic, Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind–to not point out a bunch of smaller-scale stuff (Connections, Membership Cool, Creations Store, and many others.) in late 2021 and all through 2022.
None of that moved the needle as a lot as merely filling within the Big EPCOT Grime Pit™️ and presenting a brand new nighttime spectacular that wasn’t dangerous/hideous. That’s very reductionist, clearly, however that’s undoubtedly the massive driver. And it makes me really feel vindicated in repeatedly saying that Walt Disney World was leaving cash on the desk by dragging its ft on the Central Backbone redesign.
In any case, wait instances are up year-over-year at EPCOT and (anecdotally) seems like crowds are even worse. It’s troublesome to say how lengthy it’ll maintain this momentum, however my guess is for some time. EPCOT is the native’s park and it nonetheless has extra to unveil all through this yr. If CommuniCore Corridor debuts, brings extra substance again to occasions, and a brand new summer season competition debuts…EPCOT may conceivably surpass its 2022 recognition.
That is arguably the story for Walt Disney World as an entire. Whereas followers are bemoaning the dearth of brand-new additions, this yr marks the tip of a growth cycle and a time when “all” of the brand new stuff is lastly open and development is completed. For individuals who go to occasionally each few years or once-ever (nearly all of visitors!), that might make 2024 a extra enticing time to go to than the previous few years. Walt Disney World pulling “levers” to entice followers to return undoubtedly provides to that, which means it might be a yr that all kinds of teams will go to. Or, who is aware of, the wheels may fall off after Spring Break and the remainder of the yr might be even slower. We have been fallacious about winter, so there’s nothing to say we received’t be fallacious about summer season and past.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Shocked or unsurprised that 2024 has been as busy or busier than final yr? Assume that is going to be the yr of re-revenge journey at Walt Disney World? In that case, what do you assume are the principle causes? What has your expertise been with crowds at Walt Disney World up to now in 2024? Shocked by the wait instances or congestion within the first few months of the yr? Do you agree or disagree with our tackle the crowds? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
