Shoulder Season Slowdown at Disney World

Spring break is generally within the rearview mirror and summer season remains to be one other month-plus away, which means Walt Disney World is now now getting into “Shoulder Season.” This crowd report shares wait instances information, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, and our on-the-ground observations about congestion and contours. Plus, predictions on attendance ranges in Could and June 2024, and past.

We’ll begin by having a look again on the final month-plus of spring break season at Walt Disney World. Particularly, we’ll have a look at what our Spring Break 2024 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World obtained proper and fallacious with its predictions (apart from Orange County’s week off, which ended up being shockingly uncrowded), and simply how dangerous Easter ended up being.

The excellent news is that the broad contours of the predictions–apart from that one badly bungled week–ended up being correct. Spring break season did unofficially start on March 8 and it began to fizzle out by the weekend after Easter because the Northerners began heading residence. Save for some spring break stragglers, ‘shoulder season’ arrived in full by Tax Day.

As at all times, what’s coated in these “crowd” experiences is definitely posted wait time information that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating numerous days, weeks, months, and years. So much could be gleaned from posted wait instances, but it surely’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds. Nevertheless, wait instances will not be the identical as “seems like” crowds or congestion.

There are a number of different variables that may influence “seems like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to experience breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week to percentages of company shopping for Genie+ or utilizing DAS. Past that laundry record, wait instances are sometimes inflated, inaccurate, or in any other case manipulated by Walt Disney World. Phew.

Briefly, wait instances are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million individuals over the course of the final decade-plus. Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:

We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as a complete.

It’s really been a surprisingly busy begin to 2024 at Walt Disney World, with the typical wait time in January being 40 minutes and the typical in February being 41 minutes, which is just down barely as in comparison with December, which averaged 42 minutes (due principally to the madness of the final two weeks). Previous to that, no month had a 40 minute common since final April.

Because of the primary two months being busier than anticipated, we began discussing Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024. We’ve theorized there’s a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand that might end in a year-over-year enhance in crowds after each month final 12 months after January was down as in comparison with 2022.

In the long run, final month ended up being on par with January and April 2024 is well-below development with a 36 minute common versus 41 minutes final April. That’s the month-to-date quantity, which is falling. April 2024 will nearly actually find yourself with a median of 35 minutes or decrease. In fact, this isn’t an apples to apples comparability–Easter was early (in March) this 12 months.

Talking of which, above is a have a look at the weekly crowd ranges. The 7 bars on the far proper are what we’ll be taking a look at. The yellow bar on the very finish could be disregarded–that “week” is simply at this time (April 22, 2024), and Monday is at all times the busiest day of the week–so it’s meaningless for the week as a complete.

The earlier two weeks are inexperienced bars, with 1/10 crowd ranges and averages of 30-31 minutes. These measure the post-spring break drop-off. The 2 weeks earlier than which can be dates bookending Easter, which is sort of at all times the busiest stretch of spring break. As predicted, that was true once more in 2024. The inexperienced bar previous to that was the surprisingly uncrowded week of Central Florida’s spring break.

Orange earlier than that was the kickoff of spring break, which was busy for causes beforehand mentioned–primarily the ‘final hurrah’ of the Florida resident ticket deal, conventions, youth sports activities, blockouts, and early spring breaks in Canada and elsewhere. That first week was busier than anticipated, however the huge shock was the sharp distinction and dropoff the next week.

Zooming in additional, we come to the resort-wide day by day numbers for Walt Disney World.

The week main as much as Easter was unsurprisingly busy, with a little bit of a lull (comparatively) for the vacation weekend itself. No large shock there given blockouts and a scarcity of ticket offers. That is exactly what we’ve come to count on in such circumstances.

Extra shocking is that the next weekdays picked up proper the place the prior week left off, with Thursday, April 4 being the busiest day of spring break season. (Magic Kingdom was busier than any date throughout Christmas and New 12 months’s on April 4!) It’s not an enormous shock that this week was (nearly) on par with Easter; by advantage of the vacation falling earlier, extra colleges had the week after off.

What’s shocking is that following Thursday being so busy, and wait instances sharply plummeting over the weekend. In a single day, crowd ranges went from 9/10 on Friday to 2/10 on Saturday. That steep drop seemingly is because of weekend pricing and vacationers heading residence from trip earlier–a development we’ve seen time and time once more over the past year-plus.

The complete week thereafter was much less busy, with crowd ranges selecting up for the next weekend. This seemingly comes all the way down to locals, blockouts, and climate. Nonetheless, these crowds are fairly insignificant as in comparison with spring break.

For these questioning how Walt Disney World’s wait instances examine to Common Orlando, the development is about the identical for everything of spring break season. That features the slower Central Florida recess, busier early break and Easter, in addition to the spike on April 4. Common has additionally seen a slight rise in wait instances over the past week or so.

The similarities between the 2 are literally a bit eerie. Usually, one or the opposite not having AP or ticket deal blockouts this time of 12 months can lead to dramatic variations. Not so for spring break season. There are a couple of days which can be markedly totally different, however the general developments for the final month-plus are extremely related.

Generally, Common has seen a extra pronounced slowdown on off-peak dates than Walt Disney World, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if there’s extra of a divergence for the upcoming shoulder season. In some unspecified time in the future, we’re additionally anticipating a point of ‘calm earlier than the storm’ at Common as locals and followers take “breaks” earlier than the opening of Epic Universe subsequent summer season. However that might be fairly nicely masked by general vacationer developments.

As talked about in What Went Proper on Child Bricker’s First Disney World Journey, we spent the primary week of shoulder season (1/10 crowds; 30 minute common) within the parks and might verify that each wait instances and congestion or seems like crowds had been down dramatically. It was an evening and day distinction as in comparison with my prior solo journeys to Walt Disney World this 12 months or late final 12 months, for that matter. Simply the bottom crowds I’ve noticed since final August and September, with the shortage of depressing climate being the important thing distinguishing issue.

There have been just a few noteworthy issues that I noticed when it comes to crowds, and the primary is that EPCOT was wholly missing in congestion–even on weekends. Curiosity in Flower & Backyard Competition already seems to be waning (very quick strains on the cubicles and nothing actually drawing crowds), and there’s nonetheless over a month to go. This may clarify each why the occasion was shortened by over a month, and why it actually is smart to introduce a summer season competition.

Over at Magic Kingdom, I used to be stunned to see overflow Lightning Lane return strains. Granted, that is one thing that’s been getting progressively worse since final 12 months’s spring break, but it surely hasn’t been persistently dangerous–it often corresponds with crowd ranges. This time, regardless of low crowds, there have been overflows for a lot of points of interest. This additional reinforces why Walt Disney World is cracking down on DAS abuse and misuse.

Aside from that, I’ve nothing insightful so as to add. We didn’t buy Genie+ in any respect, and nonetheless managed to do most of what we wished (admittedly a slower-paced journey with child) regardless of just one Early Entry day. Numerous late nights, although, and people proved extremely fruitful!

Wanting ahead, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of spring break. In reality, as coated in the newest replace to our 2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are only a few ‘purple flag’ dates.

At this level, it’s mainly simply what’s at the moment on the ESPN Vast World of Sports activities calendar for April 2024: 2024 ICU Junior World & World Cheerleading Championships, Cheerleading Worlds and Dance Worlds. All of these occasions happen this week or coming weekend and will trigger a slight bounce-back when it comes to crowds.

These are main dance and cheerleading competitions that increase attendance on the parks and occupancy on the accommodations, often the All Stars and Coronado Springs. Nevertheless, the influence on crowd ranges within the parks isn’t important as a complete–and tends to be overblown based mostly on anecdotal experiences, which could be fairly dangerous. (That means that you might suppose they’re a large unfavorable if you happen to’re caught in line for Haunted Mansion behind a bunch of 100 cheerleaders…otherwise you would possibly by no means see a single participant throughout a weeklong journey.)

Except for these cheer and dance occasions, that are value bringing to your consideration however not you fretting over, the excellent news is that it’s shoulder season. For these unfamiliar with the time period, “shoulder season” is the interval between two peak seasons. I suppose that’s as a result of the shoulders are under the “peak” of the physique, or the top. By which case, maybe we should always begin referring to September as butt-season? It has a sure understated stupidity to it.

Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by college breaks. Because of this, far fewer company in Disney’s core demo go to shortly after or earlier than a serious break. One main break (spring break) simply occurred, and one other (summer season trip) doesn’t begin for one more month-plus.

We see related situations different instances of 12 months, however Walt Disney World has achieved a very good job of filling the calendar with attendance-boosting occasions or in any other case attracting various audiences throughout these home windows. The largest exception to that is mid-August by way of late September and, to a lesser extent, the stretch between the top of spring break and Memorial Day.

For reference, final 12 months’s shoulder season ran from roughly April 15 till the Friday earlier than Memorial Day. As we reported on the time, that was the Slowest Six Week Stretch for Walt Disney World Crowds Since 2021. That was a extremely huge deal then, because it signaled the top of pent-up demand and was a dramatic drop as in comparison with 2022 by way of mid-April 2023.

With the advantage of hindsight, these dates are much less outstanding. Nonetheless fairly gradual, however extra of a sign of what was to come back as most dates till the guts of the Halloween and Christmas season had been comparatively uncrowded. These weeks would find yourself being surpassed by mid-August to early October 2023, which is/was the slowest 10 week stretch since 2021.

It’s not possible to say with any diploma of confidence whether or not the 2024 shoulder season can be slower than final 12 months. I’m inclined to foretell that it’s going to not. Final 12 months, Walt Disney World obtained caught flat-footed by the top of pent-up demand and scrambled to launch offers, lots of which didn’t launch till later in summer season. This 12 months, these had been launched in early April. That alone is a giant distinction, and might be sufficient to buoy attendance.

Between higher offers and final 12 months providing such a low baseline, it looks as if the good cash is predicting on larger crowd ranges for the 2024 shoulder season. With that stated, “larger” is a relative time period. The stretch between now and Memorial Day ought to nonetheless be fairly gradual, with crowd ranges underneath 5/10 for the overwhelming majority of days.

In a nutshell, 1/10 to three/10 days are more likely than 5/10 to 7/10 days. Decrease crowds could be anticipated by way of mid-June, as there’s a slight spike for Memorial Day after which often one other drop thereafter. Even Memorial Day isn’t dangerous by vacation weekend requirements–it’s not on par with holidays like Presidents’ Day, Columbus Day, or Veterans Day. These holidays are arguably “decrease profile” however find yourself being greater attendance boosters.

As an alternative, summer season trip crowds sometimes construct and decline regularly, with the height often occurring in July. Because of this even early June 2024 ought to not see the worst of summer season trip crowd ranges. In a standard 12 months, June can be larger than Could, however decrease than July. Not like final 12 months, we do not count on a lull for Independence Day. Walt Disney World has “fastened” its ticket deal blockouts, which ought to treatment that.

With that stated, Walt Disney World hasn’t skilled a “regular” summer season in a number of years. Each single summer season since 2019 has had some monkey wrench thrown into the combination, and that features final 12 months with the aforementioned pullback in pent-up demand catching Walt Disney World flat-footed. I’d wish to suppose that there received’t be any surprises this 12 months…however who is aware of.

Regardless, I’m rather more assured within the crowd forecast by way of Could 2024 than I’m in selecting the very best & worst weeks in Summer season 2024. My hunch is that this summer season goes to be barely busier than final 12 months because of the offers, however nonetheless not horrible (reasonable territory, principally). Summer season is not peak season at Walt Disney World–and hasn’t been for some time. With no opening date for Tiana’s Bayou Journey and nothing main introduced but, I don’t see this being the 12 months that modifications. We will see–it’ll be attention-grabbing to look at!

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YOUR THOUGHTS

Are you visiting Walt Disney World throughout shoulder season between spring break and Summer season 2024? Have you ever visited previously throughout the month of Could? Had been you within the parks over the previous couple weeks? What did you consider the crowds? Any parks, instances of day, or days of the week noticeably higher or worse than the others? If you happen to’ve visited in previous weeks following spring break, did you discover a giant distinction in crowd ranges? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!