Low Fourth of July Wait Instances at Disney World

Wait occasions at Walt Disney World for Independence Day 2024 have been as soon as once more low, following up final yr when stories of the parks being “lifeless” or “ghost cities” made nationwide information and prompted a response from CEO Bob Iger. This discusses the explanations for decrease crowds throughout what was a well-liked vacation.

At the least partially, this gained’t come as a shock to common readers of this weblog. Final month, we revealed Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. The title just about says all of it, so I’m not going to rehash all of that. The underside line is that summer time crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the final a number of years.

Summer time hasn’t been peak season for some time–since 2016. There have been a few years that have been anomalies throughout the pent-up demand interval, which might be a giant purpose why some followers are being caught off-guard by the summer time slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. As a result of it hasn’t been the case that summer time has persistently been sluggish over the last 7 years.

You additionally may recall that Independence Day 2023 was downright lifeless at Walt Disney World. It was such a sizzling subject that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as an entire and unseasonably dangerous climate. He wasn’t fallacious…however he additionally wasn’t fully right.

Except for Independence Day, summer time crowd ranges have been decrease throughout the board final yr. Definitely not on par with the low season that adopted, however not what you’d anticipate in the event you final skilled summer time at Walt Disney World earlier than 2016. It was downright pleasant! Nicely…as long as you possibly can endure the depraved climate. Minor asterisk.

The identical factor has been true as soon as once more this summer time, together with Independence Day 2024. Per Thrill-Knowledge, Walt Disney World as an entire had a crowd degree of 1/10 with a mean wait time of 26 minutes on July 4, 2024. For reference, that’s down as in comparison with the final two weeks of June, which had common wait occasions of 35 minutes (second to final week) and 31 minutes (final week).

Nonetheless, it’s up as in comparison with final Independence Day, when the common wait time was solely 22 minutes–that was on par with a number of the slowest days within the August and September low season!

Not all parks have been equally uncrowded on July 4, 2024. Magic Kingdom outperformed barely; EPCOT did so massively, with an 8/10 crowd degree. These two parks being busiest is especially unsurprising since they’re the one two with particular Fourth of July fireworks exhibits and there’s at the moment a ticket deal that forestalls Park Hopping.

It’s additionally price mentioning that crowd ranges measure are statistical–that means they measure wait occasions, not congestion. Often, wait occasions are a very good proxy for crowds, however not all the time. Magic Kingdom and EPCOT fireworks viewing areas on Independence Day are a primary instance of this exception–and have been undoubtedly very busy.

Then there’s Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, which have been sluggish by any subjective or goal measure. Animal Kingdom had its lowest common wait time–23 minutes–since Might 15. Hollywood Studios had a mean wait time of 25 minutes, which is extraordinarily low for DHS (take into account that it has a ‘top-heavy’ trip roster of points of interest that put up excessive wait occasions and stage exhibits that don’t put up wait occasions). July 4 was tied for the slowest day at DHS since final yr’s late summer time/early fall low season.

For reference, it additionally began as a sluggish summer time at Common Orlando, however they’ve since turned issues round. That enhance kind of coincides with the launch of CineSational in mid-June; that may be correlation, although, as Walt Disney World additionally noticed a bounce across the identical time. In any case, Common Orlando has been noticeably busier this week, with 4/10 crowd ranges on July 4, 2024. (It’s price noting that the Common Mega Film Parade simply debuted, and appears wonderful.)

With wait occasions information out of the way in which, let’s speak doable theories as to why the Independence Day vacation weekend hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…

Financial system – I’m going to start out with two controversial ones, which is able to inevitably come up within the feedback–so may as effectively deal with them within the physique of the article. Nobody can agree on the state of the U.S. financial system–not even economists. It is a weblog about Disney, so though I’ve just lately watched The Large Quick and Margin Name (thus making me an skilled on this type of factor), maybe it’s past our scope.

What I’ll say is that not each American is experiencing the identical financial system and there are conflicting statistics which have befuddled economists in terms of strong client spending–that they’ve simply type of hand waved away as “YOLO spending.” (Actually, that most likely is smart–folks received used to doing sure issues and spending sure methods throughout the pent-up demand interval, resulting in life-style creep. Others reevaluated their priorities throughout the pandemic.)

However none of that actually issues right here, as there’s key information that tells a reasonably conclusive story. The TSA forecast a record-setting Fourth of July 2024 vacation journey timeframe. TSA projected to display screen greater than 32 million vacationers between Friday, June 28, and Monday, July 8, 2024. That’s a 5.4% year-over-year enhance in journey for the vacation. That is after TSA has already set document after document for screenings in 2024, beating final yr and even pre-pandemic numbers of 2019.

For its half, AAA initiatives 70.9 million vacationers will head 50 miles or extra from dwelling over the Independence Day vacation journey interval. (Related as a result of AAA numbers cowl flying and driving.) AAA analyzed your complete Fourth of July week, plus the Saturday earlier than and the Sunday after the vacation. This yr’s projected variety of vacationers for that point interval is a 5% enhance in comparison with 2023 and an 8% enhance over 2019.

AAA reserving information exhibits home airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week in comparison with final yr, and the common worth for a home roundtrip ticket is $800. (That is really effectively below-trend for summer time as an entire; home airfare is down roughly 5% to 9.5% year-over-year.)

In keeping with AAA, fuel costs are decrease than final yr when the nationwide common was $3.53. AAA additionally signifies that Orlando, Florida is among the high journey locations this Independence Day vacation weekend. (Additionally making the record have been Seattle and Anchorage–not cities I’d usually affiliate with the Fourth of July.)

The Larger Orlando Aviation Authority expects Orlando Worldwide Airport (MCO) to have about 700,000 departing passengers over the nine-day interval from June 29 to July 7. There will probably be greater than 85,000 departures on Saturday, July 6, which is predicted to be the best quantity day.

The underside line is that no matter points may exist with the U.S. financial system, the American client remains to be spending freely and going locations for Independence Day. It’s definitely not impacting journey as an entire, though it may have an effect on what customers are doing as soon as arriving at their locations.

Politics – At any time when the subject of decrease crowds at Walt Disney World comes up, there are some commentators who rush to attribute this to politics. These identical voices have been surprisingly silent between Christmas and New Yr’s Eve when Walt Disney World noticed document excessive wait occasions. (Similar goes for some other vacation week or time when the parks have been busy.)

I’m not suggesting that politics have had zero affect on Walt Disney World attendance. I don’t doubt for a second that some households have cancelled journeys in consequence. We’ve heard from many who’ve! However conversely, I additionally suspect others have been enticed to go to on account of Disney’s perceived politics. (Greater image, I believe each of those statements apply to the state of Florida as an entire, which is equally polarizing.)

What I do assume is that that is all occurring on the margins. That the common visitor doesn’t a lot care or gained’t alter their trip plans attributable to politics. That there’s plenty of bluster, nevertheless it’s coming from a vocal minority and possibly even that group’s personal habits doesn’t match their phrases. There are simply a half-dozen higher explanations for Walt Disney World crowd dynamics than politics, particularly since attendance traits have had ups and downs within the final couple of years.

Regardless, it’s tough to conceive of politics as an evidence for a slower Independence Day at Walt Disney World. No matter affect politics is or isn’t having, it’s throughout the board. We’re on the lookout for theories as to why this vacation weekend, particularly, has seen a slowdown. It’s not like these upset with Disney’s politics are boycotting on the Fourth of July (essentially the most patriotic day of the yr at Walt Disney World!), and as an alternative choosing September 17. That’s not how this works.

Pricing – Throughout the board, summer time at Walt Disney World is costlier than a couple of decade in the past for each tickets and lodge rooms. This explains why cost-sensitive customers with flexibility have shifted their journey dates to different occasions of yr than summer time. (It might additionally, a minimum of partially, clarify the rising reputation of January and February.)

Recognizing the fact that summer time costs have discouraged guests, Walt Disney World has sought to treatment this with ticket offers (the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for most people). They’ve additionally launched a bevy of massive reductions, together with a reprise of the favored Free Eating supply.

These offers have helped and undoubtedly moved the needle for 2024 (that means numbers could be even worse however for these promos!), however there’s a giant asterisk to this. These promos have additionally attracted extra cost-sensitive customers…and you understand what that demo will do? Comparability store. 

The Independence Day vacation weekend is a part of the “Summer time Vacation” room price season, which is significantly costlier per evening than simply the common ole “Summer time” season earlier than and after. The latter isn’t low-cost within the first place–for planners who can simply maintain out till the second week in August, costs fall off a cliff.

It’s not simply pricier on-site lodges or tickets (if visitors don’t purchase the aforementioned discounted ones). Virtually each side of touring over the vacation weekend is costlier, since journey costs are largely demand-driven. As in comparison with the remainder of the summer time season, this implies larger common airfare, rental automobiles, off-site lodges, and extra.

Climate – We’ve lined climate rather a lot these days, so I don’t need to belabor this level. Particularly because it explains summer time traits, extra broadly, and never only one weekend. (And once more, together with pricing, climate paints an image of why January and February are getting busier and June and July are slowing.)

In a nutshell, Floridians keep dwelling when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. July 4, 2024 noticed sweltering climate as soon as once more–with one other warmth wave in Central Florida. Highs have been within the mid-90s with warmth indices round 105° to 112° and Warmth Advisories in place. That is undoubtedly sufficient to get some locals to alter their Fourth of July plans.

Vacationers can not shortly pivot and people already booked gained’t cancel–however they’ll probably spend much less time within the parks per day. So whereas they could possibly be shifting journeys away from the summer time months attributable to extra stories of oppressive climate, it’s not like those that do guide Fourth of July journeys are staying away from the parks. At the least, not disproportionately versus different summer time days.

As a lot as I hate excessive warmth and humidity, I believe it’s overblown as a think about decrease Fourth of July crowds. Summer time as an entire, certain. But it surely’s not the principle purpose why Walt Disney World has seen a disproportionate decelerate over the Independence Day weekend the final couple years, even when it’s the excuse Bob Iger used final yr.

Annual Passes – Saving what I believe is the perfect concept for final is Annual Passes. It is a multifaceted one. First, each the Pixie Move and the Pirate Move–two reasonably priced admission choices for locals–are blocked out the majority of Independence Day weekend (July 3 to July 6/7). That’s much more Floridians than regular who thus wouldn’t be within the parks over the lengthy weekend, which ought to end in an exaggerated model of the ‘wonky weekends’ dynamic we’ve been speaking about for over a yr.

We’ve lengthy suspected that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of it was the one AP tier that was offered for over a yr. Though that hasn’t been the case for some time, inertia has most likely saved the discrepancy going. Floridians received used to paying a cheaper price, discovered it labored out simply advantageous for them, and didn’t improve when it got here time to resume. And at a little bit over half the price of the Pirate Move, the value is definitely proper–particularly for cost-conscious locals.

Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely concept. Nonetheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. At any time when these passes (particularly Pixie Mud) are blocked out past their regular weekends, it exhibits up in wait occasions information. Keep in mind again to early-on on this Spring Break season, when the parks have been packed earlier than what ought to’ve been the height–after which have been lifeless the next weeks throughout Orange County’s recess?

That was not-so-coincidentally earlier than and after a prolonged Pixie Mud Move blockout. There are numerous different examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney repair” earlier than a blockout after which decrease crowds throughout it. It additionally occurs yearly in January when the blockouts raise, and occurred final yr for Independence Day and Labor Day. This rationalization is well-supported by two years of information.

My second concept right here is much less supported by information. It’s that fewer Floridian households and buddy teams all have the upper tiers of Annual Passes (or APs in any respect), and are thus choosing vacation gatherings and actions that everybody can do to keep away from exclusion. Anecdotally, that is one thing we’ve felt firsthand (and have heard from loads of others).

Whereas it was the case that complete buddy teams had larger tier Annual Passes at Walt Disney World or Disneyland and made the parks their default hangout spot, that’s not the case. Anecdotally, I’d additionally add that that is interconnected with climate.

Independence Day gatherings are sometimes all-day affairs (whether or not on the parks or elsewhere) for locals, with the excessive warmth and humidity making that much less fascinating–particularly when you’ll be able to drop in for a night and catch fireworks any ole evening later in July. All of this mixed makes yard barbecues, seashore days, and so on., extra interesting to Floridians (and Californians) than the parks.

Finally, my robust suspicion is that the final issue–Annual Passes–is the end result determinative one. That in the event you took the precise vacationer attendance of Independence Day weekend and added the common Annual Passholder attendance for this summer time, the quantity would come out wanting pretty near regular Summer time 2024 days at Walt Disney World. Perhaps even larger than regular.

However once more, “regular” by Summer time 2024 requirements remains to be a shadow of what issues have been like earlier than 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for a minimum of a few years. It was not a peak season vacation like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Yr’s Eve, and so on., nevertheless it additionally wasn’t reasonable–like Memorial Day or Labor Day.

For my part, that’s the place the opposite explanations come into play. Pricing is definitely the massive one. Provided that Walt Disney World has already priced out plenty of vacationers all through the summer time, it definitely doesn’t assist that the Independence Day weekend has even larger vacation weekend pricing. Value-conscious customers and anybody else comparability procuring might be contemplating different weeks in consequence (particularly in the event that they erroneously concern that the Fourth of July weekend can have larger crowds).

It’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not there’s a bounce-back in crowds after the vacation weekend concludes. Late June ended up seeing a slight spike, which is changing into typical of summer time season. Often, there’s a second spike on the finish of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘final hurrah’ summer time vacationers taking journeys earlier than faculty goes again into session. After this weekend’s blockouts conclude, I may see a gradual enhance in crowd ranges via the top of July 2024. It’s protected to say these numbers, no matter they’re, will drop in early August.

The massive wildcard this yr is Free Eating (which wasn’t provided final yr), which simply began at the start of the month. My intestine says that’ll have a extra pronounced affect on ADRs than crowd ranges, because the promotion hasn’t moved the needle that a lot on attendance previously (most visitors come from off-site and solely a small subset of on-site visitors guide Free Eating). Regardless, I’d anticipate wait occasions to extend beginning July 8, 2024. It’s very tough to say by how a lot. This isn’t precisely a daring prediction given how low they at the moment are…just about just one manner they will go!

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Your Ideas

Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why Independence Day vacation weekend crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree totally, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits throughout the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions beneath within the feedback!