Crowds aren’t heavy and wait instances aren’t excessive over Labor Day weekend at Walt Disney World. This shares our predictions for the September 2024 vacation, why we’re forecasting low to average crowd ranges all lengthy weekend, and each day park suggestions should you’re planning a go to.
By vacation weekend requirements, Labor Day weekend has not been busy dangerous crowd-wise within the final decade. Though it’s the unofficial finish of summer season, most college districts in Florida and different states return into session just a few weeks earlier than Labor Day. With out these key college districts, the vacation weekend is not the “final hurrah” of summer season crowds at Walt Disney World.
In a nutshell, Labor Day is just too late for summer season trip and too early for fall break. It’s in no man’s land, considerably much like Martin Luther King Day (between New Yr’s and winter break) or Memorial Day (between spring break and summer season trip). Crowd ranges are comparable consequently, as the first draw is locals. If you would like the Cliff Notes model of this submit, that’s it–no must learn any additional except you need to dive deeper into the information, our different theories why it isn’t a busy vacation, and each day park suggestions for the lengthy weekend.
We begin by mentioning this as a result of it looks like yearly, there’s “shock” by the “unexpectedly” low crowds over the Labor Day weekend. For no matter motive, many Walt Disney World followers have outdated conceptions of crowds for Labor Day that haven’t been true for years. Many of those identical followers nonetheless overlook Columbus Day and Veterans Day, that are all the time method worse.
With that stated, we begin by contextualizing Labor Day relative to different vacation weekends and not to different dates in August and September 2024. As all the time with regards to Walt Disney World crowds, your body of reference issues rather a lot. This has turn into the slowest 6-week stretch of the 12 months for Walt Disney World, with reliably low crowds all through.
August via most of September stay inherently unpopular as a result of college simply went again into session, which is a big limiting issue on the pool of potential friends. Not solely that, however this is among the hottest stretches of the 12 months and it’s the center of hurricane season.
So it ought to be famous from the leap that Labor Day weekend shouldn’t be gradual as in comparison with different dates within the early fall low season. Select dates at random in August via mid-to-late September and there’s an affordable likelihood they’re slower than Labor Day weekend. Accordingly, should you’re doing a protracted journey that simply occurs to embody Labor Day weekend, you would possibly discover a spike. If you happen to’re simply deciding whether or not to go to for the vacation weekend within the first place, anxious in regards to the prospect of crushing crowds, worry not.
It’s actually the second state of affairs that this submit is aimed toward–how busy Labor Day is at Walt Disney World by vacation weekend requirements, not relative to the remainder of August and September. As an example, let’s take a look at previous crowd ranges with wait time knowledge and graphs courtesy of Thrill-Knowledge.com:
Above is a graph of crowd ranges and common each day wait instances throughout all of Walt Disney World for everything of the final twelve months. On the far left aspect, you’ll see mid-August and September 2024. The primary set of inexperienced bars are August 28 via September 1. All of those are 1/10 crowd ranges.
Final 12 months, Labor Day weekend occurred September 1-4. Crowd ranges that Saturday had been 2/10 and Sunday was 4/10. Labor Day itself was additionally 1/10, with a median wait time of 24 minutes–that was 10 minutes slower than Saturday.
Nearly throughout the board, Summer season 2024 has been slower than final summer season. The common wait time this July, for instance, was 6 minutes decrease than final July. (That will not seem to be a lot, however it’s an enormous distinction.) On condition that, the good cash could be on Labor Day Weekend 2024 being much less busy than final 12 months. There are causes that is probably not the case, which we’ll talk about in a bit.
In case you need extra comparisons, above is a graph of Labor Day wait instances for the final a number of years. (The colour-coding is relative to different Labor Day dates, not every year as an entire.)
The busiest Labor Day was 2017, when the typical wait time was 33 minutes. To place that into perspective, the typical month-to-month wait instances this for January via Could had been decrease than that. Inside these months, each single vacation weekend was busier.
Talking of holidays, Labor Day is the slowest vacation on common at Walt Disney World. Halloween is the one different vacation that’s shut, and that doesn’t really matter (in my view) as a result of it’s not a federal vacation, isn’t celebrated by Walt Disney World exterior of a tough ticket occasion, and happens on random days of the week.
So far as weekend holidays, Labor Day is corresponding to Mom’s Day by way of common wait instances. In a traditional 12 months, the Sunday of Labor Day is the busiest of the weekend (adopted by Saturday), and even these days don’t maintain a candle to Columbus Day weekend. Nevermind any of the November and December holidays…and even the winter and spring ones.
Suffice to say, Labor Day is the weakest vacation weekend of the whole 12 months from an goal and historic perspective. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. We in contrast it to Memorial Day and MLK Day above, however each of these beat it handily. Labor Day weekend wait instances are decrease than all different non-fake holidays. (Sorry, Worldwide Discuss Like A Pirate Day and Whacking Day. We nonetheless love you.)
If you happen to’re questioning why Labor Day received’t be busier (above and past it being within the low season after college goes again into session), this part will clarify that. Honest warning: a lot of what’s mentioned right here is similar to our submit analyzing low wait instances for Fourth of July.
All the rationale from that can maintain true when utilized to Labor Day Weekend, too. The massive one right here is that many cost-conscious customers have been pushed away from weekends by larger costs on park tickets, lodging, and airfare. That’s the case even on common Friday and Saturday nights. Unsurprisingly, it’s much more pronounced for the vacation weekend.
The above chart reveals the nightly normal room charges at Disney’s Pop Century Resort. Discover the distinction in charges for August 30 via September 1 as in contrast with the times earlier than and after? It’s the very same story with date-based pricing for park tickets, and I’m guessing that if I pulled up a versatile calendar on Southwest Airways, it could present one thing comparable.
The underside line is that friends with flexibility are going to decide on completely different dates in that timeframe. We all know this as a result of this has been occurring all 12 months lengthy–folks have been gravitating in direction of cheaper days of the week, and cheaper weeks inside the identical common date-ranges.
With it not being peak trip season, the largest drivers for Labor Day attendance at Walt Disney World are Southerners, diehard followers wanting a fast getaway, and locals. Nevertheless, each the Pixie Cross and the Pirate Cross–two inexpensive admission choices for locals–are blocked out for everything of Labor Day weekend (August 30 to September 2, 2024). That’s much more Floridians than regular who thus wouldn’t be within the parks over the lengthy weekend, which ought to end in an exaggerated model of the ‘wonky weekends’ dynamic we’ve been speaking about for over a 12 months.
We’ve lengthy suspected that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of it was the one AP tier that was offered for over a 12 months. Though that hasn’t been the case for some time, inertia has in all probability stored the discrepancy going. Floridians bought used to paying a cheaper price, discovered it labored out simply advantageous for them, and didn’t improve when it got here time to resume. And at slightly over half the price of the Pirate Cross, the value is definitely proper–particularly for cost-conscious locals.
Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely principle. Nevertheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. Every time these passes (particularly Pixie Mud) are blocked out past their regular weekends, it reveals up in wait instances knowledge. This occurred, most not too long ago, over Independence Day weekend. That was one other vacation that was “surprisingly” gradual. (Besides it wasn’t should you’ve been being attentive to tendencies.)
A method 2024 can be completely different from final 12 months is by way of discounted tickets. There are two predominant choices at present, the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket, which is legitimate via September 28, 2024 with an advance park reservation. Extra vital is the 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket, which is legitimate via September 22, 2024.
These are massively common promos that may save guests a ton of cash (over $100 per particular person!) and so they’re additionally repeats of offers that had been supplied final 12 months. The important thing distinction is that each of these aforementioned ticket offers had been blocked out for the dates round Independence Day and Labor Day.
Consequently, there have been stories of the parks being “useless” or “ghost cities” final Fourth of July that made nationwide information and prompted a response from CEO Bob Iger. He attributed the slowness to climate and the exhaustion of pent-up demand. Whereas these had been undoubtedly contributing components, the larger variable was the ticket blockout. We all know this as a result of Labor Day was a repeat of Independence Day.
Disney realized from that mistake and didn’t block out these ticket offers for Labor Day weekend. Which means, in all chance, Labor Day 2024 can be busier than final 12 months. That’s to not say it’ll be busy–it in all probability received’t for the explanations mentioned above. We simply need to point out this as a countervailing issue; a motive to count on barely larger crowds than final 12 months.
With that stated, crowds have been trending decrease this summer season, with June and July down considerably year-over-year and August displaying comparable indicators of softness. The one significant exception to that was Fourth of July, which was up year-over-year however nonetheless very gradual by goal and historic measures. (And truthfully, I’m unsure if it being slower than 2023 would’ve even been attainable.)
Talking of which, there are the traditional crowd patterns for Independence Day vs. Labor Day. All else being equal, Fourth of July Weekend is often a lot busier than Labor Day. And in contrast to the comparability to Columbus Day and Veterans Day, all else truly does appear to be equal right here. So it could stand to motive that August 30 to September 1, 2024 ought to be even slower than July 1-4!
For reference, wait instances peaked on July 1 at 31 minutes (3/10 crowd stage). July 2 had a 30 minute common; July 3-4 had been 25-26 minutes and 1/10 crowd ranges. I wouldn’t go so far as predicting decrease crowds for Labor Day weekend, if solely as a result of these numbers are so low that the safer guess is a rise–there’s not a lot room for them to drop even additional, even when that’s what our alerts level in direction of.
Actually, the outcome-determinative issue might be climate. That’s nonetheless an unknown, however it’s in all probability protected to forecast extra of the identical: excessive warmth and humidity…and perhaps rain. (Identical to the opposite 44 weeks of summer season in Florida.)
As somebody who plans on spending a variety of time within the parks this Labor Day, I hope that isn’t the case. I might fortunately take unseasonably delicate temperatures that draw extra locals out of the consolation of their A/C at dwelling and into the parks, even when meaning 4/10 crowds or larger.
There are different wildcards. The primary is Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Celebration, which not solely attracts guests to Florida but additionally throws a monkey wrench into attendance dynamics this time of 12 months. Second is the EPCOT Worldwide Meals & Wine Pageant, which begins Labor Day weekend and may end in a spike in congestion or “appears like” crowds at EPCOT and will additionally draw diehards from out-of-state to take weekend getaways.
With that in thoughts, we all the time get questions on when to do every park over vacation weekends. Actually, that’s the far more durable query than whether or not Labor Day can be busy or gradual, because of the ‘conflicts’ with MNSSHP, begin of EPCOT Meals & Wine Pageant, and our normal Finest & Worst Day of the Week Recommendation, which does not apply over any vacation weekends.
If it had been me and I didn’t have Park Hopper tickets, I’d do the next:
- August 30: EPCOT
- August 31: Disney’s Hollywood Studios
- September 1: Animal Kingdom
- September 2: Magic Kingdom
If I did have Park Hopper tickets, I’d do that:
- August 30: EPCOT
- August 31: Disney’s Hollywood Studios -> Magic Kingdom
- September 1: Animal Kingdom -> EPCOT
- September 2: Magic Kingdom -> DHS
Right here’s some rationalization for these picks, together with some which might be at odds with typical knowledge…
Doing EPCOT first places it on the second day of Meals & Wine Pageant. That’s after the preliminary day-one rush of bloggers and vloggers, however earlier than the weekend warriors arrive in full pressure. It’ll nonetheless be busy–busier than regular–however that is the very best day for it. (Wait instances at EPCOT received’t be dangerous, however congestion will–it’ll really feel far worse than the wait instances recommend.)
The massive rigidity right here is between Monday and MNSSHP at Magic Kingdom. Usually, Monday is the busiest day of the week at Magic Kingdom. Additionally usually, Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Celebration days are slower at MK. Nevertheless, Labor Day itself is often slower and Magic Kingdom was not busy final 12 months on at the present time. So it’s truly a reasonably straightforward choose. If you would like a full day in MK, you’ll want to decide on a unique date–swap Magic Kingdom and DHS.
All the things else works backwards from these selections. Sunday is the busiest day, so prioritize the simplest park–Animal Kingdom. That leaves Saturday for Disney’s Hollywood Studios by strategy of elimination. The Park Hopper picks function from the same ‘work backwards’ perspective, ranging from not having the ability to keep late in Magic Kingdom on September 2, so then switching to the following ‘hardest’ park (DHS) on the slowest day.
In the long run, it’s essential to emphasise that there are a number of ‘competing’ variables at play with regards to the park-specific suggestions, and a few or all of these could possibly be ‘unsuitable’ consequently. I’ve the next diploma of confidence within the larger image prediction that Labor Day Weekend can be gradual than the granular park picks. The excellent news is that the larger image prediction issues much more, and ought to imply selecting the very best park every day issues rather a lot much less!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World for Labor Day Weekend 2024? What do you assume attendance can be like for this 12 months’s vacation weekend? What about as in comparison with this month, final 12 months, or the remainder of August and September? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
