Within the newest of what you possibly can count on can be a protracted line of Walt Disney World vs. Common Orlando information for the subsequent few years, final yr’s attendance statistics have been launched by the Themed Leisure Affiliation. This seems on the winners and losers within the first regular yr since 2019, with commentary about adjustments and traits for each Central Florida theme park heavyweights and past.
For starters, the 2023 International Sights Attendance Report is a collaboration of the Themed Leisure Affiliation (TEA) and the economics observe at AECOM. Prime worldwide theme parks, amusement parks, water parks, museums, and theme park operators are named, ranked by attendance, and business traits are recognized. The International Sights Attendance Report is taken into account the gold normal inside the theme park business, and TEA is very credible.
However, this report does include asterisks. Common Orlando and Walt Disney World don’t launch attendance statistics as a part of their earnings or annual reporting. There’s a complete ‘methodology’ part beginning on web page 83 of the report, which states that numbers are obtained “by means of quite a lot of sources, together with statistics furnished immediately by the operators, historic numbers, monetary stories, the funding banking neighborhood, native tourism organizations, {and professional} estimates the place needed.”
The report goes on to elucidate why most theme park operators voluntarily present statistics to TEA, and addresses skepticism about inflating or in any other case manipulating statistics. There has lengthy been fan cynicism about each Common Orlando and Walt Disney World doing exactly this over time.
Nonetheless, we doubt that’s taking place right here for quite a few causes (additionally defined beginning on web page 83). The report factors out that misreporting or over-reporting creates issues for the operators in each the lengthy and brief time period. “Within the close to time period, if attendance is up however revenues or profitability will not be, it raises questions. In the long run, ultimately, they’ll hit some extent the place the numbers are too far off to be credible.”
That is utterly correct. Anybody who listens to Disney earnings calls is aware of that the important thing metric with which the corporate is outright obsessed is per capita or guesting spending. That issues way more to Wall Avenue than attendance, therefore Disney’s previous notorious assertion about an “unfavorable attendance combine.” You realize what decreases per capita spending? Mendacity about greater attendance!
For that and numerous different causes, we consider that numbers for each Walt Disney World and Common Orlando are correct. They have been right final yr when the outcomes have been higher for Common, and proper this yr when extra favorable for Disney. If you happen to solely consider the outcomes after they let you know what you wish to hear, that claims extra about you than the report.
Once more, the Themed Leisure Affiliation is the gold normal. Each Disney and Common are top-tier sponsors of TEA and publicly rejoice annual accolades they obtain from the group. There’s a near-certainty that each Disney and Common present TEA with correct annual attendance statistics. However for those who nonetheless disagree with the accuracy of this record for no matter cause, maybe this submit isn’t for you!
With that preface out of the way in which, right here’s a take a look at the Prime 25 Theme Parks Worldwide:
It is likely to be mentioning the apparent, however the regional share adjustments are largely pushed by the atmosphere in 2022. The biggest jumps in year-over-year figures got here out of parks in Asia, which had essentially the most restrictive working environments previous to 2023. That’s why the share will increase are so excessive for Shanghai Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland, Common Studios Beijing–and to a lesser extent, the Disney and Common theme parks in Japan.
The place the respective parks have been within the cycle of pent-up demand issues rather a lot–have been they nonetheless driving the wave, or had it receded? It is a massive a part of why the Central Florida theme parks are principally underperforming relative to the remainder of the world. They reopened earlier and noticed the majority of their ‘revenge journey’ in 2022.
That created an unfavorable comparability, and made overperformance in 2023 troublesome, even with Walt Disney World and different operators pulling numerous “levers” to entice friends to return. However, initiatives like higher discounting, return of Annual Passes, particular occasions, and the opening of recent sights are all examples of the way a number of the Orlando parks managed to eek out positive aspects.
To that time, let’s slim these numbers to North America, right here’s the Prime 20:
Magic Kingdom remained prime canine of theme parks—not simply #1 at Walt Disney World, however in your entire world. Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless down as in comparison with 2019, when the park reached a staggering 20.96 million friends. That continues to be the excessive water mark for attendance, and it most likely received’t be reached once more till Automobiles land opens in 2029.
EPCOT is leapfrogged Hollywood Studios to reclaim the #2 spot of Walt Disney World parks, with a large 19.8% attendance improve. That was doubtless fueled by the primary full yr of Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind, together with partial years of different additions, development winding down, and an extended competition season.
With development now absolutely completed, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not EPCOT sees a year-over-year improve in 2024. I’d guess in opposition to it. My sturdy suspicion is that Walt Disney World massively miscalculated by not providing a summer time competition, and the opening of CommuniCore did nothing to drive visitation. Nonetheless, even principally flat attendance ought to maintain EPCOT within the #2 spot. And that proper there explains why the park solely bought one D23 Expo announcement–a brand new lounge.
In the meantime, Disney’s Hollywood Studios dropped by 5.5% and Animal Kingdom was down by 2.8%. It’s no coincidence that these are the 2 parks furthest faraway from main additions—DHS particularly noticed larger bumps the final two years, which means more durable comparisons.
Animal Kingdom is simply flailing. After peaking at almost 14 million friends in 2019, the park has been dropping since, and there’s a not-insignificant likelihood it’ll fall to half that quantity within the first full yr (2026) that Epic Universe is open. Which means we received’t see the total fruits or penalties of Epic Universe (relying upon your perspective) till this time in 2027, when the 2026 report is launched.
I’m truthfully stunned that Disney isn’t performing with a larger sense of urgency. Remember the fact that these numbers will not be “information” to Walt Disney World–they’d’ve seen these traits emerge over 12 months in the past. As we’ve been saying for some time, Animal Kingdom is in pressing want of assist and its enlargement ought to’ve opened by now.
As a substitute, development will lastly get began in 2025. Frankly, I don’t know the way DAK can get away with nothing to drive attendance between at times. Zootopia: Higher Zoogether isn’t going to do the trick–they want a drone present. Most likely extra.
As famous above, attendance is down just about throughout the board as in comparison with the 2019 report. EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are the 2 parks that come the closest, however it doesn’t appear to be both will surpass these excessive water marks anytime quickly. Particularly not with no additions this yr and Epic Universe on the horizon subsequent.
It looks as if Walt Disney World is okay with this. No less than, for essentially the most half. As we famous above, per visitor spending is the corporate’s key metric and so they’ve achieved enviable outcomes there. However they’ve additionally provided extra reductions during the last 18 months. A few of these, like Free Eating, truly do improve per visitor spending. Others, like the present ticket offers, don’t.
Our place for some time has been that Disney Doesn’t Need Decrease Crowds. The title of the submit ought to give away our conclusion, however there’s actually extra nuance to it than that. In actuality, the corporate needs to have its cake and eat it too: the intersection of upper visitor spending and greater attendance. Which means that if per visitor spending stats might be maximized similtaneously Magic Kingdom breaking the 20 million barrier, Disney would completely take each. That isn’t fairly potential, in order that they goal to string the needle and stability these wishes.
Then there’s Common Orlando. Islands of Journey was down 9.3% to 10 million friends whereas Common Studios Florida additionally fell 9.3% to 9.75 million friends.
Common apologists are prone to hand wave this away, saying that followers have been suspending journeys till Epic Universe. We’re skeptical of that. Whereas it’s completely true that folks postpone journeys for brand spanking new choices, this often happens within the months main as much as openings, not the years. It’s very troublesome to think about the typical visitor in January 2023 opting to place off a go to for one more 2+ years. That simply was not taking place at any significant scale. It isn’t how most of the people operates.
And in reality, Comcast has not even made that declare on latest earnings calls to excuse worsening outcomes. On the contrary, they’ve attributed their (documented) slowdown on pent-up demand for different journey choices together with cruises and worldwide tourism, the energy of the greenback, and normalization post-pent-up demand.
Common executives additionally conceded their decrease attendance to a lull in new attraction choices: “We haven’t launched a significant new attraction in Orlando since VelociCoaster in 2021, in anticipation of Epic Universe,” defined Jason Armstrong, Comcast’s CFO throughout a latest earnings name.
For its half, the report attributes a “massive half” of Orlando’s underperformance (relative to world numbers) to worldwide journey that has nonetheless not returned to pre-pandemic ranges. Additionally they level to the relative energy of the U.S. greenback, which makes inbound worldwide journey a lot much less enticing. In keeping with the report, Orlando operators additionally cited a lower in group journey as a key cause for decrease numbers.
Though efficiency elsewhere within the U.S. was secure or up, the burden Florida has on the entire North American market pulled common numbers down, leading to little or no internet progress for your entire North American area. However, Orlando stays a powerful major hub of the business.
There could also be a lull, however the celebration is way from over, in keeping with the Themed Leisure Affiliation. They level out that Disney has pledged $60 billion for world funding over the subsequent decade, seeking to “turbocharge” Disney Experiences. SeaWorld Orlando can also be persevering with the multi-year investments in its property, together with new curler coasters, water slides and extra. Lastly, Common’s massive funding in Epic Universe, scheduled to open in 2025, will create main buzz for the market.
Turning to commentary, we’ll try to reply the apparent query: what do these numbers imply?
“There are three sorts of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” That may be very a lot apt right here, and underscores the purpose that you would draw quite a lot of conclusions from these numbers relying upon the place your theme park allegiances lie. Some Disney diehards would possibly spotlight the general efficiency relative to its crosstown competitor, whereas Common acolytes will undoubtedly level to Epic Universe.
Truthfully, I believe each are truthful, albeit not for the explanations followers assume. Walt Disney World has opened way more since 2021 than Common Orlando. Followers appear to assume it’s not sufficient for no matter cause, however within the eyes of most of the people, there’s been rather a lot–and it has carried out nicely.
Not solely that, however Common overperformed previous to this, having already gone all out to draw Annual Passholders and entice different guests. That resulted in a blockbuster 2022 for Common, with these parks returning to actuality final yr. Against this, Walt Disney World was simply lastly beginning to “pull levers” (in Disney parlance) to lure again locals and followers final yr.
So for Walt Disney World to solely document these leads to a yr when it had extra new choices and was enterprise initiatives to spice up attendance…that’s not nice. Particularly if you account for the truth that Disney had no main attraction openings after this, and received’t till 2027.
Walt Disney World can be reliant on celebrations, promotions, and leisure to drive attendance within the subsequent few years. That would work! The brand new Disney Starlight nighttime parade can be a significant draw for followers in 2025, however it’ll doubtless take greater than that to incentivize most of the people (at scale) to ebook holidays. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see what else Disney has up its sleeve for the subsequent couple of years, and whether or not that’s sufficient to stop erosion of market share to Common.
Conversely, Common is down due to Epic Universe–however not by advantage of friends delaying journeys. It’s as a result of that has been the first focus of funding for Comcast, so there was nothing main since 2021 when VelociCoaster opened. (Which means they, themselves will not be counting the Minions and DreamWorks stuff.)
The draw back of that is that 2024 might be going to be one other tough yr with extra decreases for Common Orlando. The upside is that Comcast might be completely wonderful with this, and it creates a juicy comparability that’ll be straightforward to blow out of the water as soon as Epic Universe opens.
It’ll be attention-grabbing to see how attendance fares at Common Studios Florida and Islands of Journey as soon as Epic Universe opens. Traditionally, new gates have come on the brief time period expense of present ones–however Common is seemingly intent on bundling Epic Universe entry into multi-day packages that “drive” friends to go to the legacy parks. It’s a daring technique–we’ll see if it pays off for them.
Briefly, success for Central Florida theme parks is fairly easy: for those who construct it, they’ll come.
Time and time once more, the TEA numbers have borne this out. Animal Kingdom noticed the same explosion post-Pandora, whereas Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Toy Story Land have been massive for Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Final yr’s numbers for EPCOT inform the same story, with the park lastly benefitting from Cosmic Rewind and the additions that got here earlier than it. In the meantime, Magic Kingdom noticed a modest enhance from TRON Lightcycle Run.
Equally as necessary, the TEA report exhibits the reverse: when parks go too lengthy between opening new sights, their attendance suffers. If you’d like one “narrative” to remove from these attendance statistics, that needs to be it! For one factor, it’s true. For one more, it’s the narrative that advantages us all and places us all on the identical “facet” relatively than the infinite Common vs. Disney discourse that makes us all sound like bizarre cultists. Most significantly, it’s the attitude that encourages theme parks to speculate extra money into enlargement and opening new sights.
Clearly, there are macroeconomic and different externalities that affect attendance. With that stated, the most important ‘lesson’ to be realized is that constructing cool new stuff will increase attendance. It’s loopy that that is even a lesson, because it appears patently apparent. However Disney and different operators have performed video games over time, attempting to extract greater spending or optimize with out including something new.
Fortunately, it seems that period is over–as evidenced by the blockbuster D23 Expo. Or at the very least, it’s over till they “neglect” this lesson and choose to speculate billions within the subsequent NextGen folly. Within the meantime, it needs to be a improbable decade to be a Central Florida theme park fan as each Common and Disney make investments billions upon billions of {dollars} to draw new guests. No matter which facet “wins” or “loses” within the close to time period, we as followers all win in the long run!
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Your Ideas
What do you consider the TEA International Sights Attendance Report? Ideas on the outcomes for Common Orlando or Walt Disney World? Any colour commentary of your personal so as to add? Do you agree or disagree with our assessments and forward-looking predictions? Any questions we may also help you reply? Listening to your suggestions—even if you disagree with us—is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
