Christmas Week Will not Be As Crowded & Chaotic at Disney World As Worst of Winter 2025.

Everybody is aware of that the weeks of Christmas and New Yr’s Eve are two of the busiest of the whole 12 months at Walt Disney World, with the latter being #1 by far and having 10+/10 crowd ranges. Nonetheless, they’re not #1 and #2, with the primary week really being a lot “higher” than early 2025.

This crowd report takes a glance again at wait occasions for the whole vacation season to see how dangerous crowds have been at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. We’ll additionally have a look at wait occasions for the previous couple of years to place into context how a lot worse the week main as much as NYE actually is than all different weeks of the 12 months–and the way/why early 2025 is prone to be worse than Christmas.

One factor these crowd studies not must do is provide an extended and rambling preface to assist clarify what they do and don’t do, addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal listing of the “Prime” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Mistaken About Crowds. That’s value studying if you need a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, seems like crowds vs. wait occasions, and some pretty straightforward methods to “beat” the crowds.

By way of crowds to this point this vacation season, Walt Disney World as a complete hasn’t been too busy on a month-to-month, weekly or each day foundation. Jersey Week and Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to average territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. That little lower than every week earlier than Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.

Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week was the busiest of the whole vacation season to this point with crowds arriving the Sunday earlier than, peaking on Monday, and persevering with till Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. That’s additionally one thing to remember for 2025, as our favourite week of the 12 months at Walt Disney World appears to be beginning earlier and earlier. At this level, you could possibly do a late night time flight after your loved ones feast and revel in a reasonably low-crowds lengthy weekend at Walt Disney World.

As at all times, the week instantly after Thanksgiving was blissfully uncrowded. That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges, particularly as in comparison with what’s anticipated subsequent. Common wait occasions throughout the whole thing of Walt Disney World ranged from 25 to 29 minutes throughout this 3-week stretch. These are exceptionally good crowd ranges, and decrease than final 12 months (which was decrease than the earlier 12 months, too).

I promised that there wouldn’t be an extended preface, however there are a few vital issues to notice. A giant one is that Walt Disney World made main adjustments to its queueing insurance policies about 6 months in the past, and wait occasions haven’t been as lengthy since–even on comparably congested days.

We defined this lately in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Quicker at Walt Disney World. That’s additionally value studying, because it covers how there’s extra of a disconnect between ‘seems like’ crowds and wait occasions than anytime in the previous couple of years.

Throughout our Christmas-time visits to EPCOT, particularly, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays throughout one of many quieter weeks of December, congestion was excessive. Traces for Vacation Kitchens had been prolonged. Ditto Candlelight Processional, which had the longest eating package deal line I had ever seen.

Should you had been simply strolling round having fun with the environment, as many company had been clearly doing, you’ll’ve perceived 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait occasions, then again, had been completely manageable. These are the one goal measure of crowds, so that they’re how ranges are literally assessed. And on that foundation, crowd ranges had been 4/10 to six/10 on the times we visited.

Equally, selecting the “proper” days to go to Magic Kingdom and avoiding the “improper” ones makes a world of distinction throughout December. Not simply at Magic Kingdom (though undoubtedly there), but additionally each different park. Should you do MK on the proper days, you’re seemingly avoiding the improper ones…and each different park is far much less busy on these.

Past that, the vacation season is a curler coaster for crowds. Between the beginning of November and early January, there aren’t any fewer than a half-dozen holidays and breaks which have big impacts on crowd ranges. A few of these are apparent–the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Yr’s Eve. Others, like Jersey Week, are decidedly much less so.

The superb information is that in between these holidays, there are lulls in crowds. The breaks act as crowd magnets, of kinds, for Walt Disney World. Persons are much less prone to take off of labor or pull their children out of faculty when a built-in break is simply across the nook. This makes the downtime much more pronounced, excluding locals and diehard Disney followers who know in regards to the higher occasions and are in a position to go to throughout them. (That second half is essential. Lots of people have the information–far fewer can act upon it!)

That brings us to the subsequent few weeks, that are at all times busy. Clearly, these haven’t occurred but, so all we will provide are predictions primarily based on previous precedent and historic wait occasions information.

Final 12 months, the week main as much as Christmas had a median wait time of 45 minutes, making it busier than Thanksgiving or any week of the 12 months since Spring Break. It’s value noting that Thanksgiving and Easter (at all times the height week of Spring Break) are not in the identical ballpark by way of crowd ranges. Thanksgiving is busy, however not Easter or Christmas busy. It’s simply that there aren’t any different really busy holidays between that lengthy stretch of the 12 months.

For instance, Thanksgiving week this 12 months peaked with a median wait time that was 18 minutes decrease than the height of Easter week (that’s an enormous unfold in averages) and the elevated crowd ranges didn’t final as lengthy. Thanksgiving “week” isn’t an precise week of heavy crowds–it’s basically 4-5 days. In contrast, the Easter spike lasts over a full week.

And this brings us to the week between Christmas and New Yr’s Eve final 12 months. Final 12 months, that week had a median wait time of 61 minutes. Bear in mind, Christmas week was 45 minutes, which was very busy–manner worse than Thanksgiving or any week since Easter. So NYE week was 16 minutes busier than Christmas (on common), which was already a lot busier than Thanksgiving.

Ultimately, final 12 months’s week main as much as New Yr’s Eve was the busiest single week at Walt Disney World because the similar week in late 2019 into early 2020. That is notably notable as a result of 2023 was in any other case a slower 12 months than 2022. We’ve been speaking in regards to the exhaustion of pent-up demand for some time, but it surely really began final 12 months with most weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New Yr’s Eve was the uncommon–and important–exception to that.

Right here’s a have a look at weekly wait time traits courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to place this all into perspective:

Drilling down from weeks to particular person days, December 28-30, 2023 all set new data for the worst day of the post-reopening interval…that had been damaged by subsequent days. The averages on these days had been 68 to 70 minutes, beating the 67 minute common of December 27, 2023 that was tied on the time for the busiest day of the post-reopening interval (with December 29, 2022).

To not level out the apparent, however lately had been all 10+/10 crowd ranges. I do know it’s stylish so as to add plusses to every thing lately for no discernible purpose, however there’s good purpose for this one. At present, a 53 minute wait time is a 9/10 crowd degree, whereas 54 minutes is sufficient to hit the ten/10 crowd degree threshold. Nonetheless, that 70 minute common remains to be a ten/10 crowd degree, technically.

That’s a 16 minute unfold–which is totally huge–however the very same crowd degree. Nowhere else on the dimensions (besides, I assume, 1/10 because it may theoretically begin at 0 minutes–however that by no means occurs in apply) has that vary. Often a crowd degree has a spread of some minutes earlier than it strikes up or down. Not 10/10. It may be 54 minutes, 67 minutes, 80 minutes, 330 minutes, and many others. Therefore the ten+/10 crowd degree.

The salient level is that there are various levels of ‘dangerous’ crowds and that 10/10 isn’t a static degree of awfulness. That is additionally why followers saying it’s “apparent” that crowd ranges might be 10/10 between Christmas and New Yr’s Eve are lacking the purpose.

Sure, it’s apparent that crowds will hit 54 minutes. However how a lot greater will they go? That is what just isn’t apparent, and people further minutes could make a really large distinction. It’s one thing you’ll be able to’t absolutely respect until you’re there and experiencing these wait occasions.

Level being, that stretch main as much as New Yr’s Eve final 12 months noticed the worst common wait occasions since no less than December 2019. That’s proper–there wasn’t a single day in 2020, 2021, or 2022 that surpassed December 27-30, 2023. That’s the 4 busiest days in 4 years! Not simply the worst 4-day stretch, both. Every of these particular person dates had been the busiest single days since 2019. It was not “apparent” that this is able to occur–on the contrary, pattern strains prompt it wouldn’t, even amidst sure-thing 10/10 crowd ranges.

Right here’s how each day December 2023 crowds appeared so as to add a bit extra context:

Notably, lots of the dates within the first half of the month have common wait occasions of lower than half the 68-70 minute averages of the times main as much as New Yr’s Eve. Christmas week was no slouch, however these wait occasions are downright average relative to the week that adopted.

This can be a sample that performs out fairly constantly from 12 months to 12 months, and can nearly actually repeat itself in 2024, 2025, 2026, and many others. The precise numbers will change; the traits is not going to. You possibly can at all times count on Christmas week to be busier than the few weeks earlier than it, and the week after that–and main as much as New Yr’s Eve–to be even busier than Christmas.

Nonetheless, as prompt by the title, the loopy crowds don’t finish as soon as the clock strikes midnight on New Yr’s Eve. Right here’s a have a look at year-to-date wait occasions for 2024:

Take a look at the far left aspect. The busiest 5-day stretch of 2024 stays, to this date, the primary 5 days of the 12 months. The times that adopted dropped off a bit, however that total week stays tied with Easter because the #1 worst week of the year-to-date. Fall Break, Veterans Day, Jersey Week, Thanksgiving, and many others. didn’t even come near beating it.

The primary week of 2024 will seemingly find yourself tied for the second-worst week of the 12 months. Christmas in all probability is not going to surpass it–it hasn’t for years. New Yr’s Eve undoubtedly will, since that’s additionally the long-running pattern.

If we’re speaking about issues which are “apparent” to Walt Disney World followers and misconceptions, right here’s one other. There’s nonetheless a reasonably widespread perception that crowd ranges plummet on New Yr’s Day, which is believed to be “lifeless” as everyone seems to be hungover or heading residence. Many followers additionally consider the times that observe are likewise sluggish. Some followers additionally suppose there’s then a spike brought on by the Walt Disney World Marathon Weekend.

That is nearly totally improper.

I assume it’s true that New Yr’s Day begins out sluggish…for like an hour or two, and solely relative to the last few days which are completely off the charts. This can be a pattern we’ve undoubtedly noticed in watching real-time posted waits. I’ve additionally accomplished a number of early morning New Yr’s Days for the sake of images, as I used to have the ability to run on like zero sleep. The sluggish begin is a factor, but it surely’s a short-lived one. By noon, January 1 is busy.

Nonetheless, everybody going residence and crowds letting up for a number of days is unquestionably not a factor. At the very least, not anymore. Longtime Walt Disney World followers little doubt bear in mind crowd ranges plummeting in a single day from New Yr’s Eve to Day, and the parks being ‘sleepy’ from then till the lead-up to Marathon Weekend (which was typically over a full week away). It was downright blissful, particularly in case your journey began earlier than NYE and also you had been subjected to these crowds on the entrance finish, and refreshingly empty parks in the course of the second half.

Followers bear in mind this phenomenon as a result of a lot of them nonetheless attribute crowds in early January to the runDisney race. To make certain, that’s actually a contributing issue, however it isn’t the principle driver of crowds. In the previous couple of years, runDisney races–throughout the board–have had a way more noticeable affect on lodge occupancy than attendance or crowd ranges.

Extra considerably, this pattern has occurred with out a lot regard for Marathon Weekend. The true drivers for heavy crowds in the course of the first week of January are ongoing winter breaks, lifting of Annual Move blockouts, and considerably decrease costs than the earlier weeks. Even because the week main as much as NYE is off-the-charts busy, we’re listening to anecdotal studies of budget-conscious vacationers shifting their visits to the next week.

Our sturdy suspicion is that the most important drivers are Central Florida’s rising inhabitants and extra locals with Annual Passes which are topic to blockout dates across the peak weeks of Christmas and New Yr’s Eve. Though there’s nonetheless a giant hole, Walt Disney World’s visitor demographics are resembling Disneyland extra with every passing 12 months.

Floridians now have an outsized affect on crowds, which wasn’t at all times the case. Once we first began doing this, it was higher to observe faculty calendars from main districts within the Midwest and Northeast. Now, the timing of the most important and closest districts in Florida is a greater predictor of crowds than different states. (That’s not as seen right here, as most districts across the nation all have this day without work–but it surely’s apparent when you’re taking a look at Spring Breaks, which may be very totally different.)

Trying ahead to early 2025, most native faculty districts–together with Orange County–don’t return into session till January 7, 2025. Which means Monday may nonetheless be busy as a little bit of a final hurrah, however that additionally requires mother and father having that time without work work, and most is not going to.

As such, our expectation is that January 1-5, 2025 may be very busy, January 6 sees elevated crowds, and there’s a drop-off beginning January 7, 2025. We’d additional predict that this 7-day stretch would be the busiest at Walt Disney World till Easter (surpassing the favored Presidents Day/Winter Break), and sure till subsequent New Yr’s Eve.

Talking of Presidents Day and Winter Break, there’s an affordable likelihood that week in Winter 2025 is busier than this 12 months’s Christmas week. That was the case this 12 months (in comparison with the prior Christmas), albeit solely by 1 minute. It’ll be an in depth name once more, particularly because it doesn’t coincide with Mardi Gras. The distinction is that “everybody” expects Christmas week to be busy, whereas Winter Break catches individuals unexpectedly.

The Walt Disney World Marathon occuring January 8-12, 2025 ought to make the prediction in regards to the first week of January and its causes pretty straightforward to establish. (Since marathon crowds will largely happen the second week of January 2025.)

We nonetheless count on marathon week to be above-average, however we’re extraordinarily assured within the prediction that it received’t be as dangerous as the primary 7 days of 2025. Or, for that matter, a lot worse than a median week in Winter 2025. No matter crowd ranges these two weeks really find yourself being ought to pretty nicely settle the “trigger” of them.

(For no matter it’s value, my theories as to why runDisney isn’t as impactful to crowd ranges are that fewer out-of-state runDisney individuals are nonetheless Annual Passholders as a result of rising prices, runners are reducing journeys brief as a result of rising journey prices, and fewer are buying multi-day tickets (additionally as a result of rising prices). Anecdotal reader suggestions appeared to recommend some or all of this was true, however clearly, it’s nonetheless only a concept.)

Past this, it’s additionally protected to foretell that Winter 2025 might be busy at Walt Disney World due to delicate climate inflicting extra deferred visits, a fan-favorite seasonal occasion, and multi-year traits on this route. See Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World for extra.

I wouldn’t count on wait occasions or crowd ranges in January by way of early March 2025 to be up year-over-year, given the decrease waits that we’ve typically seen within the final 6 months plus postponed visits as theme park followers await Epic Universe. However that doesn’t actually matter until you’re a statistician.

Notion is actuality, and Walt Disney World company are nonetheless shocked by winter crowds, interval, regardless of this sample rising in 2017. It takes typical WDW knowledge some time to catch as much as actuality, which is why so many continued declaring October the low season lengthy after that ceased being true or why some followers nonetheless consider the parks are lifeless post-NYE. Crowds this winter might be extra enough that folks understand them as being worse than their very own expectations.

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YOUR THOUGHTS

Have you ever visited Walt Disney World for Christmas, New Yr’s Eve, or in the course of the first week in January in the previous couple of years? What was your expertise? Ideas on our evaluation for these weeks? Do you agree or disagree with the group predictions or rationales? Any questions we may help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!