Since Common Orlando introduced its third theme park, followers have been followers have been anxiously awaiting a solution to this query: how will Walt Disney World reply Epic Universe? Nicely, CEO Bob Iger supplied that response and Disney has since supplied follow-up. Honest warning: I don’t suppose that is going to be even remotely satisfying to these of you who’ve been asking.
The newest growth comes by way of a brand new article within the Wall Road Journal over the weekend that addresses the risk Epic Universe poses to Disney, principally by way of an outline of latest and upcoming additions, in addition to quotes from followers who’re annoyed by Disney’s torpid tempo of building and lack of a direct “response” to Epic Universe within the type of one thing huge opening in 2025. It’s nothing you haven’t heard if you happen to’ve learn latest posts right here about Common and the accompanying reader feedback.
There’s one tidbit from Walt Disney World within the article: “Epic [Universe] is Common enjoying catch-up on a decade of nonstop growth at Walt Disney World,” mentioned a Disney spokesperson. The corporate signifies that it has been providing a gentle stream of recent and reimagined points of interest, pointing to common rides which were added or up to date within the final decade. That is additionally nothing new, and echos what CEO Bob Iger mentioned not too long ago about Epic Universe.
Iger’s reply was a literal one, coming throughout the Q&A portion of the shareholder assembly. Particularly, this query requested: “With Epic Universe opening at Common Orlando in 2025, why hasn’t Disney ready something or positioned greater than only a handful of points of interest within the pipeline to be prepared in 2025 at Walt Disney World?” In response, Disney CEO Bob Iger gave the next rationalization:
“That couldn’t be farther from the reality. We’ve been conscious of Common’s plans for a brand new park for greater than a decade. We have now a complicated method to analyzing the wants of all our companies, and strategically deploying capital.
I simply wish to remind you of some issues that opened at Walt Disney World throughout this identical interval: Pandora – World of Avatar at Animal Kingdom; Toy Story Land and Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway at Hollywood Studios. We additionally accomplished our multi-year, multi-billion greenback transformation of EPCOT, which included Remy’s Ratatouille Journey, Journey of Water Impressed by Moana, and the good Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind. We additionally opened TRON Lightcycle Run at Magic Kingdom.
By staggering these main new launches, we’ve been capable of commercially and operationally optimize our new choices over time moderately than unexpectedly. Based mostly on the visitor suggestions we’ve heard about by all of those additions I’ve talked about, we all know they’re extraordinarily common and serving our friends very effectively.
By the best way, the settlement we reached with the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District final week will additional allow us to pursue the sorts of funding in our Florida parks that you just’re speaking about. We achieved a win-win end result with that deal by way of our capacity to pursue future growth alternatives, but in addition by way of the hundreds of direct and oblique jobs and financial alternatives in Florida that may end result from our funding in new tasks.
As we’ve mentioned relating to our $60 billion capital expenditure plans, there’s a lot extra coming to our parks around the globe–together with Walt Disney World in Florida.”
A minimum of partially, we all know what Iger is saying is true about Disney’s choice for staggering openings as a result of we lived by this occurring–in a nasty manner.
Bear in mind all the things that was presupposed to debut “in time for Walt Disney World’s fiftieth Anniversary?” Now bear in mind when all of that truly opened? Walt Disney World took tasks that had been presupposed to all debut by 2021 and unfold them out into 2022 and 2023.
They didn’t try this primarily because of pandemic-induced building delays, labor shortages, and so forth (though that undoubtedly performed a contributing issue). They did it as a result of slow-rolling the opening of points of interest was strategically advantageous, particularly as a result of they shelved a number of different tasks that had been presupposed to open within the years after 2021.
That method has been a sore topic with this weblog, however no less than from a monetary perspective, Disney performed its playing cards effectively. Nicely, principally. I nonetheless keep that it was short-sighted to cut back the size of the unique EPCOT Competition Middle and to delay that undertaking for years as an alternative of fast-tracking it. I believe this viewpoint has been vindicated by EPCOT attendance and crowds because the World Celebration building partitions have (principally) come down, however that’s one other subject for an additional day.
One other factor we all know is true is that the decision of litigation will facilitate additional Florida investments. I don’t wish to fixate on it an excessive amount of as a result of I’m very completely happy to shut this chapter and never report on CFTOD vs. Walt Disney World or Iger vs. DeSantis, nevertheless it’s price touching upon these feedback briefly since there have been further developments since our early reporting on the settlement settlement between Disney and CFTOD.
That very same afternoon, Governor DeSantis held a press convention throughout which he struck a extra conciliatory tone in direction of Disney, whereas additionally mentioning Epic Universe. DeSantis known as the brand new Common park a “game-changer” for Central Florida, whereas including that he’d welcome Disney constructing a fifth gate. When that occurs, he mentioned that the district will likely be able to work on one thing that’s “good for the state” and for jobs, amongst different issues.
It wasn’t a lot, nevertheless it was two very huge issues which might be an entire 180° change from this identical time final 12 months when DeSantis was joking about constructing a jail at Walt Disney World. It was optimistic as an alternative of adversarial, and it was about working in direction of development within the area as an alternative of hamstringing Disney. DeSantis additionally differentiated between Walt Disney World and company Disney in Burbank, which I view as a purposeful distinction–even when it’s all the identical firm, he can solid the Californians because the unhealthy guys and the Florida staff as the nice guys.
Along with this, we’ve discovered extra about management modifications on the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District which might be extra skilled and friendlier to Disney. These competent people will truly make sure that the CFTOD works because it ought to, and achieve its goal.
There’s been a whole lot of political reporting that has characterised this as a win-win in consequence. A few of that’s in all probability face-saving because of prior breathless commentary about how Disney would win in court docket, however there’s additionally validity to it. Our commentary has lengthy centered on the political theater angle of this (final 12 months), and why it’s advantageous for everybody to maneuver on and work collectively in direction of mutually-beneficial ends (this 12 months). It seems that’s what’s going to occur, which paves the best way for the $17 billion funding in Walt Disney World over the following decade. However we will see.
One factor to not anticipate is a fifth gate, regardless of DeSantis welcoming one and lots of followers wanting a brand new theme park. Our view on that continues to be unchanged–it completely received’t occur. (Right here’s Why a fifth Theme Park Will NOT Be Constructed at Walt Disney World within the Subsequent Decade.)
Actually, I don’t desire a fifth gate to occur anytime quickly. This isn’t as a result of I believe Walt Disney World is ideal as-is or that one other park wouldn’t be cool. Fairly the opposite! It’s principally as a result of 3 of the 4 present parks want a whole lot of assist (Magic Kingdom doesn’t, however is getting it anyway). That $17 billion could be much better spent bettering what’s already there moderately than sinking billions into new infrastructure and different issues that aren’t new or reimagined rides.
As we’ve additionally mentioned earlier than, it seems more and more seemingly that Walt Disney World goes to “sit out” 2025 and never attempt to compete with Epic Universe. (I stay of the assumption {that a} reimagined Rock ‘n’ Curler Coaster would be the tentpole addition of 2025. That plus perhaps a few redone issues in EPCOT. Sufficient to be marketable, however to not truly compete with Common.)
In actuality, Disney received’t have any official reply to Epic Universe past the above feedback about Common enjoying catch-up. They received’t acknowledge the undertaking as a risk. These are all phrases we’ve written earlier than in earlier posts, most notably Is Common “Beating” Walt Disney World? (Likewise, what follows is commentary reiterating what we wrote there.)
This lack of an “reply” to Common’s Epic Universe might be an enormous a part of why disillusioned Walt Disney World diehards are actually claiming that Common is “successful,” “going to destroy,” or “beat” Disney. Followers are annoyed at Walt Disney World’s seeming complacency or conceitedness, and wish to see them “punished” for it in consequence.
I can perceive the place many disenchanted Walt Disney World followers are coming from and agree with loads of that sentiment. As a longtime fan, one in every of my fears for some time has been that Disney is inflicting long-term model injury for short-term achieve. There’s a laundry checklist of complaints about Walt Disney World. To not point out Disney’s falling status, which is predicated on all the above plus different points. We’ve mentioned all of this at size–no sense in belaboring the purpose right here.
I don’t agree with all the complaints. Citing excessive crowds as a purpose for Disney’s downfall is mainly a Yogi Berra quote expressed unironically. I additionally don’t agree with the quantity or depth of the frustration. However there’s a purpose visitor satisfaction scores have been down, and in addition why Bob Iger is working to undo injury and lure again former followers.
With that mentioned, a whole lot of the above is wishful considering on the a part of disillusioned Disney followers. We’ve been down this highway earlier than, and these kind of predictions or sentiment have been fallacious time and time once more. This time is completely different. Besides, it by no means is. Reviews of Disney’s demise are, and at all times have been, tremendously exaggerated.
Wanting again even additional to the final time Common Orlando debuted a game-changing addition can be instructive. When the Wizarding World of Harry Potter (WWoHP) opened at Islands of Journey in 2010, the fan dynamic was much like what it’s now, simply dialed again because it was earlier than social media.
Beginning in 2007 when WWoHP was first introduced, there was a continuing drumbeat from followers about an “reply.” The important thing distinct then was that Walt Disney World hadn’t actually completed something within the decade prior. Followers on the time had been starved for brand spanking new points of interest, because the interval between the 9/11 tourism slowdown and the Nice Recession had been fairly darkish.
There was a way more rational foundation in these expectations, as Walt Disney World was struggling and will use new additions. Consequently, there have been excessive hopes for a “Potter Swatter,” and radio silence from Disney for nearly two years.
Then Disney lastly introduced New Fantasyland. For a lot of followers, that wasn’t sufficient. It didn’t initially embody Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare–and as an alternative had a bunch of subsequent era meet & greets (like Enchanted Tales with Belle, however extra of them). It was additionally slated to open after the Wizarding World of Harry Potter.
Within the lead-up to WWoHP, Walt Disney World’s public place was that “a rising tide lifts all boats” — {that a} stronger Common was useful to Disney as a result of it attracted extra folks to Central Florida. Essentially, Common Orlando’s attendance soared by 1.7 million friends the opening 12 months of WWoHP, with Islands of Journey seeing 30% development. Three of Walt Disney World’s parks dropped by 1-1.5%, whereas Animal Kingdom elevated by 1%.
The next 12 months (2011), 3 of the 4 parks at Walt Disney World had been up by 1% every, whereas EPCOT was flat. Islands of Journey as soon as once more surged–one other 29% enhance–however each Common Orlando parks had decrease total attendance than any Walt Disney World park. In 2012, Walt Disney World’s parks every elevated by ~2.2%. (New Fantasyland started opening on December 6, 2012–too late to have a significant influence on that 12 months’s numbers, particularly since all 4 parks had been up pretty evenly.)
Walt Disney World’s rising tide thesis was appropriate: Common had considerably elevated its attendance by attracting a completely new viewers to Central Florida, which in flip benefited each (however Common far, way more). Quick-forward over a decade, and each Common and Disney have skilled great development, to the tune of thousands and thousands of friends per 12 months every. The marketplace for theme parks in Central Florida has gotten bigger.
Wanting ahead, a brand new evaluation from MoffettNathanson, a agency that gives impartial evaluation to Wall Road institutional traders, concludes that Epic Universe might trigger Walt Disney World attendance to say no by about 1 million guests within the two years spanning 2025 and 2026. Conversely, it might enhance total attendance at Common’s three parks by greater than 8 million. Word that this final quantity contains Epic Universe, which means that–no less than in principle–the brand new park might cannibalize attendance from each Walt Disney World and Common Orlando’s present two gates.
Additionally be aware that these are a number of the identical huge brains that advised each Disney and Comcast ought to go all-in on streaming again in 2020 as a result of it could take journey no less than 5 years to recuperate. Prevailing knowledge on Wall Road on the time was that journey might by no means attain the identical post-pandemic heights because it had in 2019, and that streaming was the long run. Leisure journey recovered in 2 years, and traders soured on streaming in that very same span of time. So not like these dudes have crystal balls (working ones, no less than).
The Wizarding World of Harry Potter was “solely” one land again then, nevertheless it was a revolutionary one with an enormous built-in viewers. Epic Universe is a completely new park, so the size and scope is completely different–greater. Disney has in all probability concluded that the one strategy to “win” is to not play the sport–to fall again on the “rising tide lifts all boats” mantra. Iger’s feedback take this a step additional, suggesting that Disney already performed the sport, however did it during the last decade and as they strategically noticed match.
No matter whether or not that’s spin, the easy truth stays that no new journey or land goes to meaningfully compete with a brand-new theme park. Sitting out this spherical of the theme park wars and conceding the highlight for a 12 months is likely to be the perfect hand that Disney can play. No Disney fan needs to listen to this, however is likely to be the smarter transfer than attempting to steal Epic Universe’s thunder. Nothing Disney can do will high Epic Universe.
As followers, it’s additionally vital to have self consciousness. We’re not the one sort of friends who go to Central Florida’s theme parks. If something, we’re outliers. For theme park followers or frequent guests (like readers of this weblog), there’s a greater likelihood that blockbuster new additions are probably the most compelling attracts–a brand-new theme park goes to be of extra curiosity to you than ones which might be unchanged and also you’ve skilled a number of instances earlier than.
That brand-new park would trump absolutely anything for you, and that features a new land at Walt Disney World. In case your time is restricted, you’re nonetheless allocating it in direction of the brand new park over no matter Walt Disney World would add.
However for many common friends, the brand new additions from a single 12 months or two don’t exist in a vacuum. They aren’t the one promoting factors of the theme parks. Most individuals visiting in 2025 aren’t going solely on the idea of what’s brand-new.
Even for followers who go to semi-frequently, there are a whole lot of different latest, new-to-them additions. Every little thing from Hagrid’s and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to Tiana’s Bayou Journey will nonetheless be “new” to some followers in 2025. That’s a variety of choices spanning a number of years, however not everybody visits yearly. Most individuals–even those that would self-describe as lovers or followers–don’t.
Then there’s the largest demo of all: first-timers. For this group, all the things at each theme park in Central Florida is essentially new. When selecting which parks to go to, they aren’t merely choosing the brand-new additions, though these in all probability are granted extra weight because of advertising. They’re trying on the full menu, and what seems most interesting.
It shouldn’t be contentious to say that Walt Disney World is the extra established and time-tested theme park complicated. Even after Epic Universe, Walt Disney World nonetheless has another park, a dozen-plus further resorts, and extra recreation.
No matter how you’re feeling about latest films, it additionally shouldn’t be controversial to contend that the Disney’s secure of characters created and purchased within the final ~100 years is extra common and enduring. Common has made great strides with common character mental property within the final couple of a long time, however they’re nonetheless not on degree enjoying fields.
That is the place issues get extra fascinating by way of competitors for 2025 and 2026. Each Walt Disney World and Common Orlando have been aggressively including within the final decade. A lot of Common’s latest points of interest are unbelievable–Hagrid’s and VelociCoaster are two of the perfect curler coasters anyplace. Regardless of this, Walt Disney World has inarguably spent more cash on new points of interest and lands within the final decade.
It’s plain that the bump will disproportionately profit Common Orlando. It might be true {that a} rising tide lifts all boats, nevertheless it doesn’t accomplish that equally. Proportion development for Common Orlando as an entire will outpace Walt Disney World as an entire in 2025-2026.
If historical past repeats itself, Disney’s parks might see slight decreases–however the losses won’t be commensurate with the expansion at Common. Acknowledged otherwise, Tremendous Nintendo World and Epic Universe as an entire will develop the viewers for Central Florida theme parks, even when theme park diehards (such as you!) visiting Common and skipping Disney results in a slight drawdown in attendance.
Nonetheless, I wouldn’t essentially guess on Walt Disney World seeing a drop in 2025. Epic Universe has all-ages attraction, however I’d hazard a guess that the park’s major attracts (Tremendous Nintendo World, The right way to Prepare Your Dragon, and Harry Potter) skew in direction of households. Not solely that, however they accomplish that to a far better diploma than Common’s two present gates.
The argument may very well be made that, as an entire, Walt Disney World does a greater job of catering to this crowd than does Common Orlando. On the idea of recent additions, I believe you could possibly fairly argue that Common has been chasing Disney’s demographics during the last decade and Disney has been chasing Common’s.
Nonetheless, the status nonetheless exists that Common is the place for youngsters and thrill seekers, and Walt Disney World is extra family-friendly. Accordingly, I’d hazard a guess that lots of the households planning 2025 journeys to see Common’s “new Nintendo and dragon park” may even embody visits to “Disney World” (Magic Kingdom) and “Star Wars and toy park” (Disney’s Hollywood Studios).
Positively no more than they go to Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida–comfort is big, as are trip packages–however probably sufficient that no less than these two parks and perhaps even EPCOT don’t lose attendance in any respect in 2025. However, the state of affairs is just going to worsen earlier than it will get higher for Animal Kingdom. No denying that one. Tropical Americas needs to be fast-tracked in the identical manner Tiana’s Bayou Journey has been.
In the end, my view is that Disney and Bob Iger are doing a little bit of posturing and a little bit of truth-telling. (After all Iger isn’t going to say that Disney is fearful of Epic Universe in that situation, nevertheless it’s additionally good that he wasn’t fully dismissive.) In actuality, Walt Disney World received’t have a direct response to Epic Universe as a result of they already did during the last decade, but in addition as a result of they will’t have a significant one. The streaming boondoggle, amongst different issues, form of took most choices off the desk.
Even so, Walt Disney World received’t don’t have any response to Epic Universe in any respect. Whereas our above commentary is considerably dismissive of diehards and theme park regulars, they (we!) do exist in significant numbers, and not simply on the margins. Whereas it’s unattainable for Walt Disney World to “beat” Epic Universe subsequent 12 months (each as a matter of timing and significance), it is nonetheless potential to debut marketable additions to lure locals, theme park followers, and different fence-sitters to Walt Disney World. That will likely be an vital oblique response even when it (truthful warning) quantities to a whole lot of stuff that will get scorned or ridiculed. (E.g. “Common is opening an entire new park and Disney is just doing [insert small scale thing] in response?! SAD.”)
As we’ve mentioned earlier than, Common isn’t “beating” Walt Disney World or vice-versa. That received’t change in 2025 whilst the previous additional comes into its personal as a bona fide theme park vacation spot resort. There’s area within the Central Florida marketplace for each to proceed rising and thriving. That’s (considerably sadly) very true when growth is centered round mental properties–like Mario, Harry Potter, Star Wars or Marvel–that develop the viewers for theme parks, moderately than reallocate the present pool of friends.
My expectation is that Epic Universe is unbelievable and envelope-pushing. I hope it grows the viewers for Orlando theme parks even additional and erodes a little bit little bit of Walt Disney World’s market share. (Not an excessive amount of to provide them chilly ft about that $17 billion!) In my opinion as a long-term Disney and theme parks fan, that’s the perfect of each worlds. It places Disney again on their heels and feeling the should be extra aggressive, whereas additionally justified to take a position as a result of it demonstrates that there are methods to develop the pie–not simply combat over the identical sized one. Competitors like that’s good for everybody, particularly us followers.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you consider Disney CEO Bob Iger’s “reply” to Epic Universe? Assume what Disney has opened within the final decade counts for the typical visitor, even when it doesn’t for you personally? Will the opening of Epic Universe in 2025 will result in the “demise” of Disney? Or do you typically agree with the attitude {that a} rising tide lifts all boats? Assume rising the marketplace for Central Florida theme parks is an ‘everyone-wins’ finest case situation? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Some other ideas or commentary so as to add? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
