Disney World Crowds Will Quickly Spike As a result of Sneaky Holidays

November and December are two of the busiest months of the 12 months at Walt Disney World. College recesses, lengthy weekends and full week breaks trigger crowd ranges to spike, and might catch visitors without warning. We’re anticipating dates with excessive wait instances in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios–the busiest since Easter!

We regularly consult with the vacation season as having curler coaster crowd ranges, as a result of these few months have low lows and excessive highs. No matter this and whether or not you go to in the course of the valleys or peaks, be ready for elevated wait instances by historic requirements–the ‘low lows’ is probably not fairly as uncrowded as you’re anticipating.

The highs are pushed by the apparent. Individuals having break day work and faculty districts having pupil holidays, and wanting to go to Florida throughout one of the nice instances of 12 months–and Walt Disney World throughout the very best seasonal occasion. The lows are basically the inverse of that–because of the proximity of the aforementioned breaks, households are much less prone to pull their youngsters out of college to journey throughout these home windows.

It’s a bit just like the late summer season low season, which is correct after faculty goes again into session however earlier than fall break. The important thing distinction being that those that aren’t beholden to high school schedules have a a lot bigger incentive to go to Walt Disney World in the course of the lulls of November and December.

The opposite distinction is that there are some landmines or smaller holidays this time of 12 months that sneak up on Walt Disney World planners. We’ve already mentioned most of those at size in our November 2024 Crowd Calendar and December 2024 Crowd Calendars for Walt Disney World, so you have to be aware of the impression of Jersey Week or Veterans Day by this level (if not, they’re mentioned once more beneath).

Along with these, there are some extra under-discussed holidays that we wish to cowl that might transfer the needle on crowds, particularly within the nearer time period. Fortunately, these don’t change our underlying suggestions. Particularly, our listing of the 10 Greatest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2026 already recognized November 4-11, 2024 as one of many worst weeks of all the 12 months.

Our earlier evaluation indicated that that is what occurs when two or three “holidays” collide–if you happen to rely Jersey Week as a vacation. Throughout the latter, roughly 73% of the Backyard State descends upon Walt Disney World. Nicely, because it seems, there are literally extra like 5-6 “holidays” colliding right here. Let’s focus on every and its potential impression on crowd ranges…

runDisney Wine & Dine Half Marathon Weekend

Within the final couple of years, runDisney occasions haven’t had the identical impression on crowd ranges as in earlier years. That is presumably on account of runners doing the occasions however not buying park tickets in better numbers for no matter cause (value will increase?). Perhaps fewer runners now have Annual Passes?

However, there may be nonetheless a non-zero impression on crowd ranges on account of runDisney races. That is largely felt earlier than the marquee marathons (on this case, the Half Marathon on Sunday, November 3, 2024). It’s additionally disproportionately in Magic Kingdom and EPCOT. Consequently, we’d anticipate elevated crowds in each parks on the Saturday of race weekend.

By the Monday following the races, the impact from runDisney members is negligible based mostly on wait instances knowledge. There are nonetheless some stragglers, to make certain, however they don’t seem to be a major driver of crowds. The development we’ve noticed within the final two years is for the drop-off to begin occuring the Sunday of race weekend. After all, that’s not the one variable at play right here.

Diwali

I’ll be trustworthy with you: Diwali is a blind spot for me. To be clear, I do know what Diwali is (the Pageant of Lights), that it’s celebrated for five or 6 days, that it’s an important competition of the 12 months in India, and is widely known by thousands and thousands (if not a billion-plus) of Hindus and South Asians the world over. I additionally know that it has gained growing prominence at each Walt Disney World and Disneyland–there’s gotta be a demographics cause for that.

What I don’t know is the diploma to which Diwali strikes the needle on crowds at Walt Disney World, if in any respect. It’s my understanding that plenty of faculty districts with excessive concentrations of South Asian communities, significantly these within the Northeast, have an extended weekend because of Diwali. This seems to be a rising motion, with Pennsylvania formally recognizing Diwali as a state vacation as of 2024.

How it will translate into crowds at Walt Disney World (if in any respect) continues to be unclear. Information from the previous few years means that it doesn’t. Often, the very best predictor of current and future crowds is the previous, but when this can be a motion that’s gaining momentum, that wouldn’t essentially be true. It’s additionally true that 2024 gained’t essentially be indicative of a Diwali-fueled development, as there are a number of elements at play this 12 months.

Day of the Useless

One other of these is Day of the Useless, or Día de los Muertos. That is much less of a blind spot for me, as I’m fairly assured only a few (if any) faculty districts in the US have an extended weekend on account of Day of the Useless. Even the districts we watch in Southern California round Disneyland don’t have pupil holidays for Día de los Muertos (though many have de facto days off to look at the Dodgers parade).

Suffice to say, if SoCal faculties don’t have Día de los Muertos off and there’s zero impression on Disneyland crowds, there’s no means random districts in Illinois or Missouri that feed into Walt Disney World crowds have it off. So there’s additionally no impression on Walt Disney World crowds. It’s doable a handful of households from Mexico take lengthy weekend journeys to Florida, however once more, it’s not sufficient to maneuver the needle on general crowd ranges.

Election Day

That is what impressed this in any other case belated put up within the first place. In our dialogue of why Lightning Lane Premier Move costs spike on November 4, a number of readers identified that they state holidays for Election Day. Admittedly, I used to be skeptical of this at first, as not that many states supply days off for the election, and none of them are inside cheap driving distance of Walt Disney World. Even so, there are longer vacation breaks in November which might be extra fascinating for journeys to Walt Disney World.

Then one reader identified that many faculty districts have Election Day and the Monday beforehand off work, as faculties are sometimes used as polling locations for ease and accessibility. In consequence, many districts within the Midwest, Northeast–and presumably past–have lengthy weekends. Once you add days off for Diwali or, maybe extra importantly, the subsequent entry on this listing, that’s a probably lengthy break to go to Walt Disney World.

The issue right here is that we don’t have good knowledge on the impression (or lack thereof) of Election Day. The final presidential election was in 2020, and that was an anomaly for apparent causes. The one previous to that was 2016, and that was a very completely different period. Wait instances had been low the primary full week of November in each years, however it might be silly to view that as precedential. This 12 months may very well be completely different.

Jersey Week

The New Jersey Training Affiliation (NJEA) conference on November 7-8, 2024 is what offers rise to the notorious Jersey Week. Though this vacation continues to catch followers without warning, as does the outsized impression of “solely” one state having a break, that is already baked into our crowd calendar. It’s a giant driver behind our prediction that November 4-11, 2024 is without doubt one of the worst weeks of the 12 months.

Jersey Week is often a giant driver of crowds in the course of the first week of November, and it shouldn’t be any completely different this 12 months. For a few of you, it would stretch credulity {that a} single state–and one geographically pretty removed from Florida–may have such a big impression on crowds. I don’t know what to let you know apart from: it does.

Crowds within the coming week being elevated on account of Jersey Week is hardly a daring or new prediction. The annual academics’ conference has had a big impression for so long as I can bear in mind. I’ve been within the parks for a lot of Jersey Weeks, have chatted with many visitors from the Backyard State, and even departed MCO final 12 months with the Jersey Week wave. (My one criticism of Jerseyites is that they don’t rep Devils jerseys in excessive numbers. “You gotta assist the crew!” ~Puddy)

Veterans Day

The key nationwide vacation on the horizon is Veterans Day, which falls on Monday, November 11, 2024. That is the week after the above entries, nevertheless it being an extended weekend beginning on Friday for some faculty districts means it’ll trigger larger crowds that coincide with Jersey Week (and many others.) on November 8-10, 2024.

Veterans Day is all the time a “sneaky” vacation for crowds at Walt Disney World. It’s under-discussed, however a surprisingly excessive variety of authorities staff, college students, and others do have the day without work. We’ve been warning about Veterans Day crowds for years, because it has been nearly on par with Thanksgiving some years. It’s an extended weekend that may have an outsized impression on crowd ranges.

We’ve talked about this numerous instances, however that’s an more and more widespread lengthy weekend at Walt Disney World, and the majority of the busy days will really happen earlier than Veterans Day itself–particularly with the vacation occurring on a Monday this 12 months. Critically, Veterans Day is well one of many busiest vacation weekends of the 12 months, far surpassing Memorial Day, Fourth of July, and Labor Day.

After all, it’s not the one large vacation throughout November and December, however I doubt any Walt Disney World followers would doubt that Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New 12 months’s Eve are busy stretches. Together with Columbus Day (additionally one of many worst weekends/weeks), Veterans Day sneaks up on lots of people!

Busiest Days at WDW Throughout This Window

Given the unprecedented timing of those varied occasions and holidays, and the way they overlap, it’s probably worthwhile to have a look at indicators from Walt Disney World as to their attendance forecasts. Sadly, I’m undecided how instructive that’s, provided that Disney is sending combined messages.

If we take a look at Lightning Lane Premier Move costs, Walt Disney World believes the worst crowds might be November 4, 6-7, 9-10.

Lightning Lane Multi-Move pricing tells a special story. I’m not even certain what that story is, as a result of prices are all over. The one fixed is November 10, 2024. Two different days which might be nearly constant are November 8-9, so it might appear that LLMP pricing analysts anticipate the Veterans Day lengthy weekend being busiest.

Extensions to park hours roughly corroborate this, as Walt Disney World has the longest hours from November 7 to 11, 2024.

For no matter it’s value, this is kind of what we imagine. Although we forecast November 4-11, 2024 to be one of many 10 worst weeks of the 12 months, our expectation was that crowds can be backloaded on account of Veterans Day. That Jersey Week would balloon numbers all week lengthy, however that the weekend can be busiest.

Saturday being the height of the vacation weekend is sensible, and is the one commonality if you happen to align the aforementioned costs with park hours extensions. Saturday can be the lone day when Magic Kingdom has the uncommon midnight closure. For those who requested me just a few months in the past to select the busiest day, it might’ve been Saturday.

Nevertheless, I can also’t assist however wonder if Walt Disney World is leaning a tad an excessive amount of on historic knowledge. Usually, Saturday wouldn’t be the busiest day of a vacation week, or perhaps a lengthy weekend. Veterans Day being noticed on a Monday as an alternative of Friday (like final 12 months) may imply that Sunday doesn’t fall off as a lot as regular and that Saturday isn’t as busy.

I can also’t assist however wonder if each Walt Disney World and this web site haven’t given acceptable weight to the present lengthy weekend on account of Election Day, and many others. I anticipated it to be a non-factor as that’s been the case in earlier years, however now I’m not so certain whether or not previous precedent displays current actuality. If a excessive variety of visitors are doing full weeklong holidays as an alternative of lengthy weekends, the busiest days must be Monday and Tuesday (based mostly on developments for different weeklong holidays).

The “drawback” in attempting to evaluate crowd ranges at this level is that this isn’t a weeklong break or vacation weekend…it’s each. Some visitors might be taking a full trip and others might be taking a fast getaway. It boils all the way down to the distribution of every that issues. Suffice to say, it’ll be fascinating to see which days are busiest. It’s troublesome to foretell given the countervailing elements and lack of dependable previous precedent.

It’s unlikely that Jersey Week/Election Day/Veterans Day/and many others. crowd ranges surpass Easter, however this week-plus nearly actually will surpass Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day/Fall Break. Although the 2 weeks are often neck and neck, the hurricane threw a monkey wrench into attendance developments this 12 months and, presumably, triggered a variety of cancellations.

One of many weeks in November will nearly actually be the busiest week since Spring Break. That’s as a result of just about each single week since Easter has underperformed in 2024. The months of Might by means of October have all been down year-over-year, as has nearly each single week inside that stretch.

For November 4-11, 2024 to be the busiest week since spring break, all it might must do is have a median wait time of 36 minutes or larger. That’s solely a 5/10 crowd degree. Solely a few weeks since April have averaged 35-minute crowds; most have struggled simply to hit the 30-minute mark. The comps are fairly favorable and straightforward to beat–Jersey Week (and many others.) ought to be capable to do it.

Now let’s speak beating the crowds. The added hours we talked about above are extremely advantageous–particularly the sooner opening instances since most vacationers don’t wish to do the early wake-up name on trip.

Selecting the optimum days to do every park, particularly Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom–after which benefiting from Early Entry at each parks–is big. Don’t underestimate Early Entry, or visiting these parks on days which might be prone to be much less crowded. It’s an analogous story with DHS or Animal Kingdom within the evenings.

By merely arriving early or staying late at each park, you possibly can beat the worst of the noon crowds. (After all, that’s “easy” in concept however harder in observe, particularly in case you have young children. That’s a giant cause why wait instances are decrease very first thing within the morning and later within the evenings.) Past that, you’ll want to additionally take a look at our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of assault.

It’s solely doable to beat dangerous crowds by using Lightning Lane Multi-Move, Early Entry, Prolonged Night Hours, rope drop, and many others. We cowl the very best & worst strategy for every park in Greatest Time-Saving Methods for Walt Disney World. For those who’re solely going to learn one planning put up, make it that.

There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Lightning Lane Multi-Move (LLMP) or Single Move (LLSP). We don’t purchase line-skipping companies more often than not, and discover we’re capable of do exactly nice as long as we’re up early or out late–ideally each!

Talking of which, we’ve got a complete Information to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for individuals who wish to totally grasp paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s undoubtedly choice for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and perhaps EPCOT. (We seldom advocate LLMP at Animal Kingdom, and that continues to be true.)

Total, that’s about what you possibly can anticipate to expertise throughout mid-November 2024 at Walt Disney World. How issues unfold over the subsequent couple of weeks actually relies upon upon what number of Northeast and Midwest vacationers have break day from faculty or work for Election Day and different holidays earlier than Veterans Day. These are the unknowns–all the pieces else right here is pretty priced-in.

Years of wait instances and on-the-ground expertise tells us that Jersey Week and Veterans Day are large holidays, which is exactly why November 4-11, 2024 makes the worst weeks listing. The unanswered query is whether or not the opposite holidays and days off could make this window go from dangerous to worse, or redistribute each day crowds inside it. Nobody can predict this with a excessive diploma of confidence, which might seemingly prolong to even Walt Disney World, as their very own attendance ‘indicators’ are contradictory.

In the long run, we wouldn’t essentially keep away from the upcoming week in case you have a school-aged baby and haven’t any higher choices outdoors of the even larger vacation breaks within the remaining quarter of the 12 months. At the same time as we’re warning concerning the upcoming window, there must be little doubt that the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New 12 months’s Even might be a lot worse than Veterans Day/Jersey Week/and many others. They all the time are.

For complete ideas for planning your Christmas-time journey to Walt Disney World, take a look at our Final Information to Christmas at Walt Disney World. For Walt Disney World journey planning ideas and complete recommendation, be certain that to learn our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information and associated articles.

YOUR THOUGHTS

Have you ever visited Walt Disney World throughout this ‘sneaky’ window in mid-November prior to now? What did you consider the crowds? Are you visiting this 12 months? Do you’ve Election Day or any of the above holidays off work or faculty? The rest we missed that might impression crowds in November 2024? Do you agree or disagree with something in our crowd forecast for Walt Disney World? Any questions we may help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!