Disney World’s Gradual Summer time Winds Down

With the arrival of August, Walt Disney World’s surprisingly gentle summer time season is winding down–which means that crowds ought to fall even additional with the unofficial arrival of the “fall” low season and Halloween 2024 on the horizon. This wait occasions report covers journey & each day information for final month at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom.

To reiterate, Walt Disney World has not been busy for the previous few months. It’s been a sluggish summer time at Orlando’s theme parks, as we talk about at size in  Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. That provides our theories as to why summer time has been slower, in addition to why it’s probably not all that stunning and is a development first noticed in 2016-2018.

However, the summer time slowdown has been extra pronounced than even we anticipated. However two issues are sure: that summer time has not been significantly crowded at Walt Disney World, and that in a standard 12 months, August and September can be even much less busy than June and July. So it’s not that the low crowds are ending–it’s that they’re on the precipice of dropping to their lowest ranges of the 12 months.

Earlier than delving into the information, we wish to supply some background as there all the time appears to be pushback in opposition to claims of decrease crowds on a few bases. The primary is from those that visited Walt Disney World just lately and had experiences that they had been suggestive of the parks being busy. Perceptions and expectations are what they’re, so there’s actually no arguing with or refuting that.

What I’ll merely say is that there’s no common commonplace for crowd ranges–it’s all relative. Some followers declare Walt Disney World is “all the time busy” now and “there’s no low season.” This isn’t the angle of crowd calendars. Clearly not, in any other case they’d be ineffective. “It’s all the time dangerous” isn’t a really useful manner of advising you as to which dates to go to, even when it’s far more concise.

In actuality, there’s a pronounced distinction that anybody might really feel between 1/10 days and 10/10 days, and even 3/10 versus 7/10 crowd ranges. With that mentioned, the parks usually are not veritable ghost cities (for essentially the most half) permitting you to do snow angels on the bottom at even the bottom ranges. You will see rides with hour-plus posted wait occasions. You will encounter areas of congestion. “Uncrowded” at Walt Disney World means one thing completely different than it does at Yellowstone Nationwide Park or some random dying mall on the outskirts of city.

However, it’s solely comprehensible that visitors would have firsthand experiences that recommend to them Walt Disney World was something however “sluggish.” Maybe their body of reference is 2020, 2016, and even 2008–all occasions when the parks had been much less busy than this summer time. Possibly they’ve by no means visited in any respect and had been overwhelmed by the expectations vs. actuality. Possibly they received unfortunate with journey breakdowns. All of this does occur, so the sort of skepticism is sensible.

Much less wise are the feedback, totally on social media, with a subtext suggesting we have now some type of agenda in wanting Walt Disney World attendance to be excessive or low. After we share information that crowds are rising, some of us who’re actively cheering for Disney to fail decry the experiences as lies. When crowds are down, others do the identical.

Walt Disney World crowds have (sadly) grow to be a element of the tradition wars. It’s very silly. Even except for tradition wars, there’s the sense amongst many disgruntled Disney followers that the corporate must “be taught a lesson,” whether or not that be courtesy of Epic Universe, decrease crowds, or who is aware of what else. In any case, there’s no agenda right here. Walt Disney World attendance is what it’s. No quantity of us discussing the subject places our “thumb on the size” to vary that.

We’re clearly not the arbiters of attendance statistics, both. When it’s down, we report that. When it’s up, we additionally report that. (And that’ll occur in like 2 months!) This has been the case for years, so except our “agenda” is like Two-Face from Batman, that argument doesn’t actually cross muster. (Sorry for venting, the responses to those crowd experiences have simply gotten so tedious and annoying that I’ve pulled again from doing them as a lot in consequence.)

On this specific case, it’s troublesome to argue that we have now an agenda in spreading “misinformation” about low crowds except you additionally assume that Disney CEO Bob Iger and CFO Hugh Johnston have the identical agenda. Over the last Walt Disney Firm quarterly earnings name, each warned of a looming attendance slowdown for theme parks. Not solely that, however Walt Disney World has been underperforming for a number of consecutive quarters as in comparison with the opposite parks and Disney Cruise Line.

If all of that sounds acquainted, it ought to. This additionally isn’t the primary, second, and even third time the corporate has immediately addressed it and indicated that pent-up demand has been exhausted at a few of the parks. No, the parks usually are not lifeless or ghost cities or completely empty, however they’re down as in comparison with the peak of pent-up demand. As we’ve mentioned earlier than, that is hardly a five-alarm fireplace, and there are levers that Disney has been pulling to buoy bookings.

That final earnings name was again in Could, so it’s previous information at this level. Disney’s subsequent earnings name is in every week (August 7), and that ought to present further particulars about the newest quarter. Within the meantime, Comcast simply held its quarteryl earnings name final week, the place the corporate revealed that income at Common’s theme parks was down 11%.

Common blamed the income drop on a number of components, together with unfavorable comparisons to the pent-up demand interval and a rise in different journey choices, corresponding to cruises and worldwide tourism, given the power of the greenback. In addition they attributed the lower to an absence of latest sights in Orlando. In reality, two-thirds of the drop was tied to decrease attendance on the firm’s parks in Florida and California. Executives additional indicated that this downtrend was more likely to proceed till the opening of Epic Universe in 2025.

There’s no motive to consider Disney or Comcast executives are mistaken or mendacity about any of this. It goes with out saying that Common will see a rebound from Epic Universe. The large unknown is whether or not Disney additionally will–because of extra individuals visiting Orlando and spending time at each–or if the downtrend will proceed at Walt Disney World all through 2025. However that’s past the scope of this put up.

With that out of the way in which, let’s dig into the information and take a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Information.com:

We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire. This covers each single month from January 2019 (far left) to July 2024 (far proper), so you may see simply present crowds evaluate to previous ones.

It’s troublesome to discern, however listed here are July numbers:

• July 2019: 7/10 crowds; 41 minute common wait time
• July 2020: 0/10 crowds; 14 minute common wait time
• July 2021: 6/10 crowds; 40 minute common wait time
• July 2022: 7/10 crowds; 41 minute common wait time
• July 2023: 4/10 crowds; 36 minute common wait time
• July 2024: 2/10 crowds; 30 minute common wait time

July 2020 was the beginning of the phased reopening, with attendance capped to such a level that this information–and just about all dates from that month by Could 2021–must be thrown out.

It’s additionally price mentioning that the drop from 7/10 crowds in July 2022 to 2/10 crowds in July 2024 is “solely” a distinction of 11 minutes. That won’t appear to be a lot, however that’s how delicate crowd ranges are to shifts in wait occasions. (Additionally, 11 minutes for each single attraction is a giant distinction and it actually provides up over the course of the day.)

To me, what’s most attention-grabbing about that is seeing a lower each single month since February. In a standard 12 months, there can be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which summer time spike (or two). Even with summers being much less busy within the final decade, this was the dynamic we had been seeing.

As an alternative, this 12 months has proven a sluggish and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Could to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! All of this can be a large motive why we argued that Walt Disney World Wants ‘Summer time Nightastic’ in 2025. With out making a concerted effort to show the summer time slowdown round, it’s solely going to worsen with every passing 12 months.

With the week by week view, we are able to see that crowds have been fairly fixed this summer time. There was a slight spike on the tail finish of June, however even that solely received numbers again to Could ranges.

One factor I do wish to word is that Walt Disney World has been laying the bottom for the rollout of Lightning Lane Multi-Move since Could 20. It’s my robust perception that this has resulted in a gradual discount of standby wait occasions over the course of June and July. I don’t have any manner of corroborating this with information–it’s merely a mix of my anecdotal observations and a little bit of background information.

Accordingly, it’s extremely doubtless that the lower in wait occasions is proportionally bigger than the lower in attendance (or seems like crowds, for that matter). By how a lot, I’ve no clue. However this in all probability is a decently vital issue and one which the gang information is “lacking,” because it’s solely a measure of standby wait occasions…and never a proof for them. (Therefore our coloration commentary!)

Wanting on the each day information, it’s a bit simpler to identify the spike on the finish of June, adopted by one other lull for the Independence Day vacation weekend. I’m not going to rehash the “why” of that–see Low Fourth of July Wait Instances at Walt Disney World.

What’s additionally simply barely seen is a slowdown this week after Monday (often the busiest day of any given week at Walt Disney World). As we’ve mentioned beforehand, the final week of July is often the “final hurrah” of summer time–with vacationers taking holidays that week earlier than preparing for college within the weeks that observe.

It’s all the time doable that August sees a short spike to start out the month, however that’s not one thing we’ve noticed lately. On the contrary, the primary week of August has been slower than the final week of July with a good quantity of consistency. It was once that mid-August was the top of the summer time season–now that’s moved ahead to the start of the month, and even the previous few days of July.

We haven’t accomplished park by park evaluation shortly, however are going to return to it for this crowd report because it’s the final replace earlier than Occasion Season actually throws a monkey wrench into issues.

Let’s begin with Magic Kingdom. The best bars every week are virtually all the time Mondays and Tuesdays, and typically Wednesday. Lowest are sometimes Saturdays and Sundays. As a common rule, although, Magic Kingdom is quieter, crowd-wise, than it was final 12 months.

See Finest & Worst 2024 Crowd Days at Magic Kingdom for a fool-proof checklist of the least and most crowded dates at Magic Kingdom between now and December 2024. This features a handful of pink flag dates to keep away from in any respect prices.

As for this summer time at Magic Kingdom, there was a little bit of a spike throughout previews and across the opening of Tiana’s Bayou Journey, however not a lot. The reimagined journey hasn’t actually moved the needle a lot on wait occasions, which is partially to be anticipated because it makes use of a digital queue.

Nevertheless, it’s nonetheless attention-grabbing as a result of the journey has been down quite a bit, and the visitors who could possibly be driving it are (presumably) as a substitute doing different issues. It additionally doesn’t look like giving Magic Kingdom a lot of an attendance increase–there’s not almost the affect as, say, TRON Lightcycle Run. That is much less stunning. Tiana’s Bayou Journey isn’t brand-new, and its opening date was introduced too late for a near-term increase from summer time vacationers.

I’m extra curious concerning the lengthy tail of Tiana’s Bayou Journey. Amongst informal visitors, is the reception optimistic or detrimental? How do its visitor satisfaction scores evaluate to Splash Mountain? Are the downtime and reliability woes ‘breaking containment’ from the fan neighborhood and reaching most people? I don’t have the solutions to any of those questions. Truthfully, it’s actually troublesome to evaluate something about this attraction from the angle of the common visitor–fairly than the polarized fan neighborhood.

Animal Kingdom has greater wait occasions on common, but it surely additionally has far fewer rides than Magic Kingdom.

Besides on the very worst days of the 12 months, Animal Kingdom is much and away the park at Walt Disney World the place the crowds are essentially the most “beatable.” As long as you arrive early or late, you completely don’t want to purchase Lightning Lane Multi Move right here.

In case you’re going all out and have a limiteless finances, it’s possible you’ll disagree. To every their very own, I suppose. On the plus aspect, most visitors do agree with us, which is why there aren’t tiers at Animal Kingdom and why it’s the most affordable park for LLMP and why it has the very best stock. You would possibly wish to take into consideration all of that–and the why of that–earlier than shopping for.

EPCOT wait occasions are essentially the most attention-grabbing.

We all the time level out that EPCOT is the locals’ park, and Floridians usually tend to go to for festivals and ambiance than rides. (In the event that they don’t do rides, they don’t affect crowd ranges–even when they do improve congestion or traces for meals cubicles!) Locals are additionally extra doubtless than vacationers to cancel park plans on the final minute if the climate is dangerous–and it has been a scorching and wet month.

On account of all this, wait occasions typically don’t inform the total story at EPCOT. This summer time, they do. No less than, in our expertise. EPCOT has been lifeless since June. There have been a number of exceptions to that (per the wait occasions), however we weren’t there on any of these days, so I can’t converse to that.

This actually makes me wonder if Walt Disney World regrets the choice to shorten Flower & Backyard and Meals & Wine–or to not introduce a brand new summer time competition. The inner considering was that there have been diminishing returns on the longer festivals, with locals getting “competition fatigue” the final couple years.

Nicely, I believe that is a type of classes that issues can all the time worsen. It completely was true that locals misplaced curiosity within the overly lengthy festivals. It’s additionally true that no competition in any respect is even worse for EPCOT attendance and wait occasions. (Once more, climate can also be an element–but it surely’s not like final summer time was good!) I actually marvel how Walt Disney World will adapt subsequent 12 months. Clearly, “Weight-reduction plan EPCOT” for almost 3 consecutive months isn’t the reply. Ouch.

Lastly, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

As all the time, that is the park with the very best common wait occasions in all of Walt Disney World, owing to its disproportionate variety of headliners coupled with stage exhibits that put up no wait occasions in any respect (and thus don’t drag down averages). Summer time has been pretty unremarkable at DHS. Slower than final August or this winter, however not considerably so.

I’m truly considerably stunned that Disney’s Hollywood Studios didn’t see extra of a lower within the lead-up to the launch of Lightning Lane Multi-Move. Or possibly it did, and this information is what that appears like. The summer time wait time common at DHS was virtually 10 minutes decrease than final 12 months. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not this development reverses. As we’ve famous, DHS has emerged early-on as the very best park for LLMP. (See What’s Up with Lightning Lane Multi Move Availability at Disney World?)

Wanting ahead, climate is more likely to play an outsized function (much more so than regular for summer time) in dictating crowd ranges for the subsequent couple of weeks. Meteorologists are forecasting highs within the mid-90s and rain each single day for as far out because the prolonged forecast goes. In different phrases, a median August for Central Florida! However wait, there’s extra.

Based on the Nationwide Hurricane Middle (NHC), there’s a​ disturbance monitoring by the northern Caribbean islands might type into Tropical Storm Debby because it crawls close to the japanese Gulf of Mexico and Florida this weekend into early subsequent week. Clearly, quite a bit might change between from time to time with the storm system’s monitoring, however no matter the place it goes, Florida will doubtless see a big improve in rainfall this weekend into early subsequent week.

I don’t learn about you, however for me, the proper method to usher within the begin of Halloween season is…checks notes…a 93° excessive and triple-digit “seems like” temperature plus a tropical storm scare. That’s just about the forecast for the primary Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion of the 12 months. On a very unrelated programming word, I’ve made the “troublesome” choice to attend the D23 Expo in Anaheim, the place highs shall be within the mid-80s with lows within the mid-60s and 0 probability of rain. I’ll catch MNSSHP later within the season.

Finally, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see what occurs within the subsequent few weeks with crowds at Walt Disney World. Southern faculty districts will begin going again into session throughout the subsequent week; a number of main ones together with Atlanta and the Gulf Coast had their first days right this moment–August 1! In Central Florida, each Osceola and Orange County faculties return into session on August 12, 2024.

It’s doable that this week sees a little bit of a last-minute surge of Southerners, but it surely’s additionally doable that the climate retains quite a lot of locals sitting on the sidelines. No matter how this week performs out, there must be a extra pronounced drop-off across the center of the month (except the climate will get actually dangerous, by which case, it’ll arrive earlier) and subsequent week. The next week ought to see a good sharper drop, heralding the unofficial begin of the autumn low season at Walt Disney World.

As a common matter, it’s protected to anticipate low season crowd ranges even decrease than the low factors of June and July by subsequent week. Common wait occasions must be at or under the 30 minute mark as of subsequent week. That’s ok for round 1/10 to 2/10 on the gang calendar, which isn’t too shabby!

We’ll see whether or not the diploma to which these predictions find yourself being correct, or if Walt Disney World crowds and wait occasions throw us one other curveball. We’ll proceed monitoring crowds and report again in late August or early September after the beginning of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion.

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YOUR THOUGHTS

Ideas on late summer time crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for August 2024 or fall low season? In case you’ve visited throughout the final month or so, what did you consider crowds? What about posted vs. precise wait occasions? Any parks, days of the week, or occasions of day noticeably worse than others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!