It’s been a season of curler coaster crowds at Walt Disney World–excessive highs adopted by low lows–a development that’ll proceed with the arrival of extra vacation weekends and faculty breaks this winter. This wait instances report shares knowledge for the final month and year-over-year comparisons, plus our theories as to what’s occurring with attendance & traces–and why wait instances are getting worse at portray a whole image of crowds.
One factor these crowd experiences not have to do is supply an extended preface to assist clarify their strengths and limitations, or addressing misconceptions about crowds. That’s as a result of I’ve kicked that out to its personal checklist of the “High” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Flawed About Crowds. That’s value studying if you would like a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, appears like crowds vs. wait instances, and some pretty straightforward methods to “beat” the crowds.
Which means we will dig proper in and shortly recap the vacation season. Christmas is now formally within the books, with Magic Kingdom taking down its decor and turning off the music as of yesterday (January 15). That makes it a superb time to do a autopsy on crowds. Wait instances for Walt Disney World as a complete had been down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation from mid-November by means of mid-January. This doesn’t imply there weren’t 9/10 or 10/10 crowd degree days–there completely had been–so let’s break down what it does imply…
Jersey Week by means of Veterans Day noticed a slight spike to reasonable territory, with crowds plummeting the week after to lows rivaling their August and September lows. I used to be within the parks for many of this time, and my anecdotal notion was that it wasn’t too unhealthy. Even the busiest stretch wasn’t unhealthy, particularly when it got here to Lightning Lane or technique testing. That little lower than every week earlier than Thanksgiving week is one to focus on in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving week was the busiest of November with crowds arriving the Sunday earlier than, peaking on Monday, and persevering with till Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. However even at its peak, Thanksgiving week was not actually busy. Crowd ranges, at the least as measured by wait instances, ended up being reasonable. (As at all times, congestion is a distinct story.)
That together with the primary two weeks of December all ended up having low crowd ranges. Through the first 3 weeks of December, common wait instances throughout the whole thing of Walt Disney World ranged from 26 to 29 minutes. These are exceptionally good crowd ranges, and decrease than final yr (which was decrease than the earlier yr, too).
Most surprisingly, wait instances dropped every week, making our favourite week of your entire yr at Walt Disney World the “busiest” of the bunch. We’re nonetheless speaking low ranges, however often every week of December will get progressively busier.
My greatest guess is that increased costs are having a deterrent impact on attendance outdoors of vacation home windows (which means friends who aren’t beholden to highschool breaks are extra inclined to comparability store dates primarily based on worth), and that’s one thing value protecting in thoughts. With revenge journey firmly within the rearview mirror, many customers have gotten extra cost-conscious and fewer free spending. (This might clarify a whole lot of different developments we’ve noticed currently.)
What got here subsequent confirmed the limitation of upper costs having a deterrent impact on attendance throughout college breaks. The week of Christmas had a 46 minute common wait time–20 minutes increased than the week instantly earlier than it–for a 9/10 crowd degree that was sufficient to make it the busiest week since Easter.
The week encompassing New Yr’s Eve had a 50 minute common for 10/10 crowd ranges, making it, as soon as once more, the busiest of the yr at Walt Disney World. Hardly a shock, because the week of NYE is persistently the worst of the yr. (Word that each holidays fell on Wednesdays, so these weeks really included days earlier than and after every.)
Additionally unsurprising is that crowds have dropped since then. Final week had a 33 minute common for 4/10 crowds, and this week-to-date is sitting at 25 minutes for 1/10 crowd ranges. These developments are roughly what you’d count on, however that also doesn’t even start to inform the total story. We’ll cowl what this implies and, maybe extra importantly, what it doesn’t imply, beneath.
First, right here’s a take a look at weekly wait time developments courtesy of thrill-data.com simply to place this all into perspective:
This exhibits weekly wait time knowledge courting again to 2019. The left peak is that Christmas and New Yr’s Eve, from earlier than the world went sideways (therefore the hole for a pair months in 2020). Then there’s a bunch of ineffective knowledge from mid-2020 and 2021, adopted by related peaks on the opposite half for the final three years.
The week within the lead-up to New Yr’s Eve in late 2023 is the tallest line on that graph (barely), with a median wait time of 61 minutes. That’s 11 minutes busier than the comparable week in 2024. However once more, there isn’t actually a very comparable week. December 31, 2023 was a Sunday, which means that was a full week for the needs of those timeframes. So it’s not an apples to apples comparability.
However, 2023’s week main as much as New Yr’s Eve was the busiest single week at Walt Disney World for the reason that similar week in late 2019 into early 2020. That is notably notable as a result of 2023 was in any other case a slower yr than 2022. We’ve been speaking in regards to the exhaustion of pent-up demand for some time, nevertheless it really began final yr with most weeks being slower than 2022. The week of New Yr’s Eve was the uncommon–and important–exception to that.
Even with out apples to apples comparisons, you’ll be able to plainly see this gradual weekly downtrend from 2022 highs to 2023 and 2024. It’s most likely tougher to discern, however 2019 wait instances sit just under 2022. It bears emphasizing that wait instances are not a proxy for park attendance. There are such a lot of issues that affect posted wait instances knowledge and make annual comparisons from 2019 to now pointless (free FastPass+ vs. paid Lightning Lanes, and the utilization of every being one biggie). However we’re getting forward of ourselves–extra alongside these traces beneath.
Right here’s a take a look at each day wait instances over the course of the final yr:
The far left begins with mid-January 2024, and the far proper is mid-January 2025. Clearly, all the times in between are in between.
Take a look at the far left aspect. The primary large spike there may be Presidents’ Day, then early Spring Break, adopted by Easter. What’s most noticeable, I feel, is how largely elevated these days are as in comparison with the post-Easter drop-off in early April. That is exactly what prompted us to put in writing Winter (Nonetheless) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World final yr. After virtually a full yr of declining wait instances (versus the identical months within the prior yr), January by means of March 2024 noticed wait instances improve.
It didn’t final. Those that observe crowd patterns want no reminder, however final summer time’s “efficiency” revived commentary that Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World, with different websites even claiming it’s now low season. It isn’t, as must be apparent by the prolonged sea of inexperienced beginning in late August.
Now in equity, there have been two hurricanes that collectively price Walt Disney World $130 million in misplaced income. Even at Disney costs, that quantities to a whole lot of cancellations, explaining why late September by means of the primary few weeks of October had been artificially depressed. Fall break nonetheless noticed a comparative spike, however not practically to the extent as regular–or it will’ve however for the hurricanes.
However, the decrease wait instances continued into elements of November and December, and there’s no climate to elucidate these away. Equally as important, this yr’s wait instances fell off a cliff on January 12, 2025 to ranges far beneath the identical dates final yr. So the massive query turns into…are there any alternative ways to elucidate this away?
Sure, at the least to some extent. Frankly, there should be, as Disney hasn’t reported a steep drop off in attendance on its earnings calls. They did warn traders of attendance softness and demand moderation by means of 2025 throughout one earnings name earlier within the yr. Nonetheless, the newest quarter noticed “comparable” customer numbers to the prior-year quarter, suggesting attendance was flat or solely down barely.
In contrast, Walt Disney World’s wait instances do present a steep drop, extra like 10%. This got here as quarterly income elevated, and annual income reached a brand new file, up by 5% versus the prior yr. That’s not simply Walt Disney World, although; it additionally contains Disneyland and the worldwide parks, in addition to (maybe most notably) Disney Cruise Line. So not a lot could be gleaned from that.
This comes on the similar time when Common reported income for its theme parks division down 5.3% on lighter attendance (to an unknown diploma). The distinction is that Common opened Tremendous Nintendo World in Hollywood in early 2023, and noticed a pointy drop-off final yr after that. In Orlando, followers have been suspending visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe. Not a lot we will surmise about Walt Disney World attendance from any of this.
In our view, the one largest clarification for the drop in wait instances is that Walt Disney World made main modifications to its queueing insurance policies in mid-2024. Wait instances haven’t been as excessive since–even on comparably congested days.
We defined this in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Shifting Quicker at Walt Disney World and have mentioned it elsewhere. That’s actually value studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘appears like’ crowds and wait instances.
Throughout our vacation season visits to EPCOT, particularly, we actually felt this. Even on random weekdays throughout one of many quieter weeks of December, congestion was excessive. For those who had been simply strolling round having fun with the environment, as many friends had been clearly doing, you’ll’ve perceived what felt like 10/10 crowd ranges. Wait instances, however, mirrored crowd ranges of round 4/10 to six/10 on these days.
It was the same story in Magic Kingdom, particularly within the evenings on non-party dates. These actually really feel like they’re getting worse, to the purpose that I’d hazard a guess that Walt Disney World’s experiment in providing free Park Hoppers–virtually actually executed to normalize attendance throughout celebration season–backfired and made Magic Kingdom busier on dates it was open later.
We’ve mentioned all of this a number of instances during the last couple of months, nevertheless it all bears reiterating as Winter 2025 heats up. EPCOT’s Pageant of the Arts begins tomorrow (January 17, 2025), and this annual occasion has change into a fan-favorite that’s a giant draw for locals and vacationers alike.
This weekend is a vacation weekend, so it’d probably see a spike in attendance regardless, however we’re anticipating that shall be sustained. Simply as we wrote final yr, winter nonetheless isn’t low season–and that’s nonetheless (nonetheless nonetheless) the case even when attraction wait instances recommend in any other case.
Finally, this does current us with one thing of a dilemma in easy methods to talk about wait instances and crowds going ahead.
Wait instances are used as a proxy for crowd ranges as a result of they’re the one goal measure for that. There’s actually no various–even when somebody had countless sources and will make use of 8 researchers to be within the parks each single day from opening till shut, that will nonetheless be too anecdotal to be of worth. And on the finish of the day, wait instances nonetheless are what’s essential to most planners, even when congestion can depart an outsized impression.
It nonetheless bears strongly underscoring this rising disconnect between wait instances and congestion or appears like crowds. We are able to solely assume that wait instances will proceed to be down considerably year-over-year because of the aforementioned queueing coverage modifications and postponed visits within the lead-up to Epic Universe (and Disney Starlight Evening Parade), however solely the latter impacts attendance. These coverage modifications will proceed to make for troublesome year-over-year wait time comparisons till round Summer time 2025, which is true across the time attendance might additionally see a lift because of the new additions. That may make for a double-whammy the place the numbers go from showing down considerably year-over-year to up by related margins.
All of that is my manner of claiming to not take wait instances and crowd degree reporting too significantly proper now, at the least on the subject of year-over-year comparisons. This web site and others are going to proceed sharing the the info is trending downwards. That’s true. Nevertheless it’s at all times been the case that wait instances offered an incomplete image of crowds. Now it’s actually true, to the purpose that you just may be disenchanted or stunned when you simply take a look at the stats and predict the parks to be ghost cities throughout your go to. Attendance may be down barely, nevertheless it gained’t be to just about that diploma.
On the contrary, all it takes for even heavier appears like crowds year-over-year is extra locals and followers within the parks versus first-timers. The previous teams usually tend to wander round and do issues apart from points of interest, whereas the latter focus extra on rides. And this would possibly very nicely occur if extra APs are in circulation, ticket offers show in style, or first-timers balk at the price of Disney holidays. That’s to say nothing of lowered capability because of refurbishments, closures and development. The underside line is that there are a whole lot of variables that contribute to congestion or appears like crowds, and wait instances are just one piece of the puzzle.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you consider wait time and crowd developments over the course of the final 6-7 months, however particularly in the course of the current vacation season and Winter 2025? Anticipate ‘appears like’ crowds to be heavy over the subsequent couple of months, even when the wait instances recommend a slowdown? Some other crowd concerns we did not keep in mind or particulars we missed/received incorrect? Do you agree or disagree with my evaluation? Any questions we may help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!
