It’s at present Spring Break ‘season’ at Walt Disney World, and there have already been attendance highs and lows in March 2024. This crowd report shares wait occasions information together with us making an attempt to make sense of why the parks have been so gradual throughout what ought to’ve been a peak week at Walt Disney World.
We received’t bury the lede. Crowd ranges have dropped precipitously since March 16, 2024. That is vital as a result of it’s a giant break week for Central Florida faculty districts, with each Seminole and Orange County having March 18-22 off for Spring Break, to not point out a ton of different counties all through the South. Throughout the identical break final 12 months, crowd ranges for Walt Disney World as a complete had been 9/10 and it was the second busiest week of the 2 month stretch, following Easter.
Consequently, I predicted in our March 2024 Crowd Calendar and Spring Break 2024 Crowd Calendar that though the season as a complete would start on March 8, it wouldn’t be till March 15 when Spring Break kicked into excessive gear and crowds received actually heavy. I couldn’t have probably been extra fallacious.
I can’t recall a time after I’ve been extra fallacious about something, and I’m truthfully embarrassed about this. However since we level out once we’re proper about issues, turnabout is truthful play and it’s solely applicable to personal simply how fallacious I used to be right here. And it’s not simply that I anticipated this to be the second worst week of Spring Break–I predicted it’d be one of many 10 worst weeks of the whole 12 months. (It was final 12 months!)
It’s additionally not simply that I received this previous week fallacious–it’s that I missed the mark on the week earlier than that, underestimating how dangerous March 8-15 can be, comparatively. I did notice that, in contrast to final 12 months, there was extra of a bifurcated break for Central Florida, which means that about half of districts had final week off and half had this week off. That led to the (I assume?) partially appropriate conclusion that this week can be much less busy than its counterpart final 12 months resulting from Spring Break being extra diluted.
Then got here the fallacious half: “Even when no different districts in the whole United States had spring break these two weeks, they might be busy at Walt Disney World resulting from these space faculty programs.” I continued by explaining the outsized affect native faculty breaks have on crowds, which is a comparatively new phenomenon as a result of inhabitants explosion in Florida. For no matter it’s price, it’s not simply Florida; extra main U.S. districts outdoors of the Sunshine State had this week off than final. (Though, to be clear, most districts have subsequent week–Easter–off.)
Extra just lately, I had the prospect to again down from this forecast when Walt Disney World prolonged park hours and didn’t do a lot for the week of Orange County’s Spring Break. As an alternative, I frightened that it’d be a repeat of final 12 months’s vacation season when Walt Disney World “over” prolonged hours at first, after which backed off when precise extensions had been warranted by increased crowds.
Whereas I did concede and hoped there was one thing Disney’s inside projections confirmed that I didn’t know, our total perspective was skepticism in direction of the dearth of extensions. Because it turned out, Walt Disney World was proper–added hours had been probably not wanted primarily based on crowds. You positively would’ve been higher off going this week with shorter hours than final week with longer ones.
I did lastly concede that a few countervailing elements suggesting that final week may be worse than this as Genie+ started promoting out final week. The primary was the Winter 2024 Florida Resident Ticket Deal, which ended on March 15, 2024. The second was the 2 lowest tiers of Annual Passes being blocked out beginning final weekend and early this week. Even then, I underestimated simply how outsized of an affect these variables would have.
Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the info and have a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
Right here’s a have a look at every day crowd ranges throughout Walt Disney World for the year-to-date. It’s really been a surprisingly busy winter at Walt Disney World, with the typical wait time in January being 40 minutes and the typical in February being 41 minutes, which is just down barely as in comparison with December, which averaged 42 minutes (due largely to the madness of the final two weeks). Previous to that, no month had a 40 minute common since final April.
We had anticipated this month to be even busier, however this week has pulled the typical down, with most days having averages under half-hour. In per week filled with surprises, the most important was Monday, March 18. At the same time as crowd patterns have been shifting in 2024, Monday has remained the busiest day, on common.
Not this week! The typical wait time at Walt Disney World this previous Monday was 24 minutes, the bottom since January 9. The final time there have been consecutive days with this low of crowds was instantly after Thanksgiving into early December of final 12 months–our favourite week of the 12 months at Walt Disney World.
Talking of which, right here’s the weekly have a look at crowd ranges. From the primary week of Spring Break to the second, common wait occasions dropped by a whopping 17 minutes. (We anticipated a rise of about 3 minutes–which means a 20 minute anticipated vs. precise unfold.)
This stage of week-to-week drop is exceedingly uncommon–not even Thanksgiving to the week after or New 12 months’s to the week after noticed this massive of drops. Often it takes two weeks to ‘stair step down’ from near-peak to low season.
This previous week’s crowd stage is the bottom since early-to-mid September 2023. Going again to 2022, there hasn’t been a single week this gradual that’s not within the month of September. Even among the nice weeks in 2023 and early 2022 had been all busier than this previous week. For those who advised me there was a ‘September-level’ week that will happen someday this 12 months, I might’ve guessed Could or August or early December–positively not the center of Spring Break season.
It’s in all probability price contextualizing this with precise attraction averages, since I can already anticipate some individuals who had been at Walt Disney World utilizing a random 1 p.m. posted wait time of 80 minutes to justify the conclusion that it was really very busy.
On this context, “lifeless” doesn’t imply that nobody else was within the park or you would do snow angels on Fundamental Avenue. It means September-caliber crowds, which is traditionally the slowest month of the 12 months. So uncrowded that, for essentially the most half, you wouldn’t want to make use of Lightning Lanes. A great way to explain “lifeless” is thus that, with a modicum of savvy technique, you would do the parks through standby strains with minimal waits at 95% of rides.
By way of averages, the one attraction in Magic Kingdom above an hour was Seven Dwarfs Mine Prepare (72) minutes. This really isn’t that nice of a posted wait, and implies a most within the triple-digits. However nothing else had a median above an hour. And to make sure, I used to be (enviously) spot-checking wait occasions in Magic Kingdom and I noticed occasions when SDMT was 45 minutes and all the pieces else was under 30 (together with House Mountain with a 15 minute noon posted wait!).
Disney’s Hollywood Studios was dwelling to the very best common, with Slinky Canine Sprint at 81 minutes. Once more, not nice. However that is the kind of week that will usually have triple-digit averages for 3-4 rides at DHS and 60+ minute waits for one more 3-4 rides. Nothing else was over an hour, on common.
On multiple event, I noticed posted wait occasions of half-hour for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance and even much less for different headliners. Actually September stuff.
At Animal Kingdom, Flight of Passage was the one journey over an hour. Throughout a traditional Spring Break, that is one other 100+ minute wait on common. Bear in mind, it hit 3-4 hours a number of occasions throughout the week of New 12 months’s Eve. A median of 65 minutes is de facto uncommon, even when it would nonetheless appear to be a very long time. It’s actually not for that journey.
Nothing else at Animal Kingdom was over an hour. This in all probability means you would’ve hit nearly all the pieces as a walk-on (or almost so) throughout the first or final 2 hours of the day. And Animal Kingdom has been atypically dangerous up to now this 12 months–to the purpose that we’ve eased up our “no Genie+” stance, because it has (had) turn into extra worthwhile.
EPCOT had one journey over an hour: Frozen Ever After. Whereas that’s not so superb, each Take a look at Observe and Remy’s Ratatouille Journey being under 60 minutes is a big win.
With that stated, this says nothing about congestion or “looks like” crowds at EPCOT. I’m guessing additionally they weren’t dangerous given the blockouts and demographics, however you by no means actually know. If somebody advised me EPCOT felt depressing regardless of these common wait occasions, I’d be inclined to imagine them. EPCOT is all the time a wild card with the potential for a disconnect between crowd ranges (through wait occasions) and congestion, particularly when climate is delicate and there’s a pageant.
Subsequent, we’ll try and dissect why crowds had been so unexpectedly low throughout the mid-March Spring Break window. All the following concerns are additionally elements mentioned in Monkey Wrenches Disrupting & Rising Crowds at Walt Disney World in 2024…
Florida Resident Ticket Deal Ended – As famous above, the primary 2024 Floridian ticket deal of the 12 months ended on March 15. It’s nearly actually not a coincidence that this ticket deal ended and crowds instantly dropped the following day. It’s additionally not a coincidence that crowds had been elevated throughout the closing week of the deal.
Throughout resident ticket offers at Disneyland, we’ve observed a ‘final hurrah’ within the week-plus previous to Californian ticket offers expiring. This has turn into constant and predictable, to the purpose the place crowds are all the time worse within the week earlier than the offers finish than the week after. That is notable as a result of they finish once they do for a motive–the next weeks are forecast to be busier as a result of arrival of vacationers, faculty breaks, and so forth.
Till this 12 months, that had by no means occurred at Walt Disney World to the extent that it does at Disneyland. There are occasions when ticket offers have been blocked out which have seen decrease crowds (like final Fourth of July), however it’s by no means a single-factor state of affairs. It’s the resident deal blocked out plus increased costs plus different blockouts, and so forth.
Within the ‘monkey wrenches’ publish, I remarked that I’d “be prepared to guess that Walt Disney World offered considerably extra Florida resident tickets in 2024 in consequence [of no weekend blockouts].” This was the large motive why Saturday and Sundays are now not the least-busy days of the week at Walt Disney World, reversing a development that began final 12 months.
Nonetheless, the diploma to which weekend crowds elevated throughout the ticket promo was far decrease than the diploma to which they’ve decreased–throughout the board–for the reason that deal ended. That implies that there’s extra at play…
Annual Move Blockouts – One other factor talked about above is Annual Move blockouts. The 2 lowest tiers of APs had been legitimate many/most dates throughout the first week of Spring Break season, however not the second week. The Pixie Move has blockouts for the second half of the month beginning March 16, whereas the Pirate Move blockouts started March 18.
That is undoubtedly a contributing issue to the dearth of crowds this week and the excessive crowds final week–locals making an attempt to get their final visits in previous to being blocked out. The explanation we discounted this as one thing that will downright depress crowds is as a result of each of the identical Annual Passes had blockouts throughout Orange County’s Spring Break final 12 months–neither of those APs had been legitimate throughout that aforementioned 9/10 crowd week!
There are two explanations for a distinction. The primary is that Orange County’s Spring Break and Easter are each blocked out, simply as they had been final 12 months. Not like final 12 months, these are back-to-back weeks; that results in an extended, uninterrupted blockout window than final 12 months. However that solely explains why final week would’ve been busier–locals getting in final visits earlier than prolonged blockouts kicked in.
The higher rationalization for the distinction between final 12 months and this 12 months is solely that there are extra Floridians who’re Annual Passholders–particularly on the Pirate Move tier. Final 12 months, the one AP that was out there for buy presently was the Pixie Move. New AP gross sales for the opposite tiers didn’t resume gross sales till April 20, after an 18 month hiatus. That wrinkle clearly made a giant distinction, and one for which we didn’t correctly account. We assumed most locals already had Pixie Passes final 12 months (a part of the rationale the ‘much less busy weekends’ dynamic emerged), however apparently that was fallacious.
Few Non-FL Districts on Break – To no matter extent the above blockouts had been missed and saved locals out of the park this previous week or pushed them into the prior week, it was exacerbated by the fact that almost all faculty districts outdoors of Florida and the South merely shouldn’t have Spring Break this early.
Many Northern and Midwestern states simply had Mid-Winter Break on the finish of February; they’re not getting one other break so quickly. However as soon as once more, this was additionally true final 12 months! Mid-Winter Break will not be a new-for-2024 invention; it additionally existed final 12 months. It was predominantly Osceola and Orange County (together with different Central Florida districts) colleges inflicting the crowds. 12 months-to-year constants ought to probably not clarify the discrepancy between the 2 years.
Conventions, Youth Sports activities & Occasions Ending – Additionally as famous within the ‘monkey wrenches’ publish, there are often main dance and cheerleading competitions held from January till March. The most important main ones of those wrapped up on March 10, which might be another excuse crowds fell. I’m skeptical, as that is one other year-to-year fixed. (Additionally, I feel the affect these occasions have on crowd ranges is exaggerated.)
A probably extra vital wildcard is conventions and group occasions. We famous that enterprise journey has rebounded in 2024, in order that’s not a 12 months to 12 months fixed. It’s completely attainable, if not possible, that conference season is over for now–or no less than on hiatus as Walt Disney World ready for the inflow of Spring Break vacationers.
Pricing – When bundle and ticket costs had been launched final 12 months, it was notable that March 2024 was the lone month when costs went up each single day (as in comparison with March 2023). A part of this was to be anticipated, because the Spring Break season can be extra consolidated into March as a result of timing of Easter.
Nonetheless, increased costs final 12 months for tickets and resorts usually discouraged crowds, as additionally famous in our evaluation of why weekends and a few holidays had been slower. This was notably pronounced round occasions that weren’t as well-liked for out of state vacationers. The explanation for that ought to be apparent–vacationers don’t have flexibility, and can trip once they have faculty or work breaks.
Against this, locals can time their visits to coincide with cheaper dates. These increased base ticket costs in tandem with the now-expired Florida resident deal meant it might’ve price some locals over $100 extra to go to this week than final week. (Despite the fact that this can even be true throughout Easter week, the possible distinction is the vacationers with out flexibility. They often present up throughout vacation weeks with out regard for peak season pricing. It’s the locals who transfer crowd ranges on the margins.)
For no matter it’s price, there was additionally a time limit when Walt Disney World anticipated this week to be busier than final. Costs shot up beginning March 16 and they ended the aforementioned FL resident deal and began blockouts then. Dearer costs plus blockouts are the clearest indicators that inside attendance projections are increased. Disney had clearly up to date its forecast by the point park hours had been prolonged, however decrease crowds weren’t what the corporate anticipated when pricing March 2024 or releasing the Florida resident ticket deal.
Attendance Slowdown With out “Levers”? – It’s a humiliation to get crowd predictions this fallacious, however even perhaps worse is the opportunity of lacking the mark on total tendencies. We’ve just lately been discussing Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024. We’ve theorized there’s a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand that might end in a year-over-year improve in crowds after each month final 12 months after January was down as in comparison with 2022.
This concept is grounded in goal actuality–as of our final crowd report (which means earlier than this week), common year-to-date wait occasions for 2024 had been tied with 2022 (41 minutes) and up significantly as in comparison with final 12 months (37 minutes). Spring Break had gotten off to a surprisingly sturdy begin, suggesting that 2024 might pull into the lead because the #1 worst 12 months ever at Walt Disney World for wait time ranges/crowds.
It’s untimely to throw that each one out the window on the idea of 1 week, however I’m nonetheless questioning whether or not Walt Disney World has been in a position to buoy or enhance numbers up till now by aggressively pulling “attendance levers” and possibly that isn’t sustainable–and this reveals what occurs once they let up on it. (This might additionally clarify the flurry of summer time bulletins, resembling why Disney Springs is getting a drone present or EPCOT is getting a summer time pageant, in all probability.)
Traditionally Busier & Worse Climate – Alongside comparable strains, we theorized within the ‘monkey wrenches’ publish that maybe snowbirds had been having an outsized affect in January and February. It’s attainable that guests from Northern and Midwestern states with the liberty to journey throughout off-peak months are selecting the winter and upcoming shoulder season over Spring Break, summer time and early fall on account of final 12 months’s brutally excessive warmth and humidity and/or extra favorable pricing.
The flip facet of that’s these similar snowbirds or out-of-state Disney followers with flexibility can be much less inclined to go to throughout what’s traditionally Spring Break season as a result of expectation of heavier crowds, increased costs, and (marginally) worse climate than winter. I personally don’t assume this can be a enormous issue, however it’s additionally not nothing–particularly after the triple-digit climate final 12 months, some followers in all probability modified their visiting habits.
In the end, these are all simply working theories that designate among the causes for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World throughout the ‘peak’ week of Central Florida’s Spring Break. The indisputable fact that we missed or ‘underweighted’ these elements within the first place with our crowd predictions ought to alone counsel that we don’t have a agency grasp on what’s inflicting decrease attendance. There are probably variables we missed right here, too.
We apologize for whiffing so badly on this week’s crowd predictions. It will’ve been an awesome week to go to–among the finest of 2024 up to now, and possibly the perfect of the whole Spring Break season. If it makes anybody really feel any higher, we put our cash the place our mouths are, so to talk, and likewise prevented visiting this week. It was on our quick checklist, however we opted towards it after my firsthand expertise with heavy crowds throughout the identical week final 12 months.
As an alternative, our Spring Break go to goes to be throughout per week that may, nearly assuredly, be busier than this previous week. That’s, until one thing has gone terribly fallacious and Walt Disney World is on the precipice of an excessive crowd slowdown. Easter being Easter, we in all probability received’t have learn on that till subsequent month. Keep tuned, as we’ll preserve you posted on predicted and precise crowd ranges at Walt Disney World…even once we get them fallacious.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you go to Walt Disney World this week or final week (or each)? What has your expertise with crowds? Shocked by the low posted wait occasions throughout the peak week of Central Florida’s Spring Break? Any elements you assume performed a job in surprisingly low crowds that we didn’t establish? Do you agree or disagree with our tackle the crowds? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
