Re-Revenge Journey Crowds at Disney World in 2024?

The primary two months of 2024 at Walt Disney World have been busy, with extra crowds on the horizon for Spring Break and Easter. This wait occasions report shares knowledge for February and early March 2024, plus how this compares with the final two years and why this could possibly be the yr of re-revenge journey at WDW.

As coated in final month’s crowd report, Winter Crowds Warmth Up at Walt Disney World as Worst Weeks Arrive, the parks have been crowded. Nonetheless, the diploma to which that’s true actually relies upon upon your body of reference. As we’ve identified, winter just isn’t low season anymore at Walt Disney World and hasn’t been for some time.

Since round 2018, winter has had actually excessive highs and comparatively low lows. The busier dates have been pushed by faculty breaks, runDisney races, youth sports activities at ESPN Vast World of Sports activities, conventions and different occasions, and only a common improve of tourists fleeing to Florida to flee chilly climate at house.

The gradual dates have been as a consequence of kind of the other of that. College going again into session (and proximity to different breaks, making dad and mom much less more likely to pull children out of college), total decrease inbound traveler numbers to Florida versus milder months, lulls within the occasion schedule, and many others. At the same time as Walt Disney World crowd ranges had elevated as a complete for winter, there have been nonetheless candy spots for visiting.

Nonetheless, the flip aspect is that we anticipated there being loads of nice dates to go to in Winter 2024. As long as planners didn’t go in anticipating completely ‘lifeless’ parks with crowd ranges on par with what they was once previous to Winter 2018 (or 2021, which was an anomaly), it’d be a great time to go to.

This prediction was predicated on the expectation that journey journey would proceed to burn out, with crowds dropping even decrease year-over-year as in comparison with January and February 2023. That was a comparatively “secure” crowd forecast because it had been true of each single month for the final yr. Effectively, it’s now secure to say that was incorrect. Crowds have been heating up over the course of the final two months, reversing year-over-year declines for the primary time since January 2023.

As all the time, what’s coated in these crowd experiences is posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating varied days, weeks, months, and years. Rather a lot might be gleaned from posted wait occasions, but it surely’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion.

There are a number of different variables that may influence “seems like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to journey breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week. (Actually all the pieces on that listing can be related in Winter 2024 up to now!) Yada yada yada…that’s only a partial listing! Past that, wait occasions are sometimes inflated, inaccurate, or in any other case manipulated by Walt Disney World.

Briefly, wait occasions are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million individuals over the course of the final decade-plus. With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the info and take a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:

We’ll begin with a high-level take a look at the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as a complete.

The final three months don’t look horrible in the event you’re evaluating them to the primary half of the graph, which has a number of pink. These months are “solely” orange. Nonetheless, that first half is the guts of revenge journey and 2022 ended up being the worst yr ever for Walt Disney World when it comes to wait occasions. That’s additionally why each month since January 2023 had been down year-over-year.

With a mean wait time of 41 minutes, February 2024 had the very same crowd degree as final February and is thus the primary month since January 2023 to not be down year-over-year. A part of this, admittedly, is simply a better comparability. Walt Disney World has now absolutely lapped the pent-up demand interval, so it received’t be as tough for months this yr to be on par with and even up year-over-year.

If we as a substitute seemed again to February 2022 when the common wait time was 45 minutes, we’d see that February 2024 was nonetheless noticeably slower. (4 minutes might not sound like a lot, however it’s with regards to crowd ranges.)

That additionally doesn’t inform the entire story, although. It’s not like revenge journey occurred neatly inside one calendar yr after which a swap flipped, and demand returned to regular. This turns into simpler to see within the weekly crowd averages; we will pinpoint when pent-up demand really began to fizzle out.

Breaking it down by week, we will see that between Christmas Eve and New 12 months’s Eve was off the charts–barely busier than the identical week year-over-year. The next week that encompasses winter break was nonetheless actually unhealthy, however not fairly as unhealthy as final yr. That’s partly a matter of timing, although; this yr’s vacation breaks ended earlier.

In case you take a look at the weeks since then, there was actually just one gradual week and one reasonable week. The final three weeks have been above-average. Aside from Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras, mid-January by early March 2024 has been busier than the identical weeks final yr.

Which may not seem to be a giant deal, but it surely actually is. Revenge journey was nonetheless going sturdy final yr by Spring Break, after which level it fell off a cliff (by April 16, 2023). The wait occasions weren’t as unhealthy as 2022, however they have been nonetheless elevated. After Spring Break, each week was slower year-over-year in 2023. It wasn’t till Fall Break in October that crowd ranges rebounded to ranges final seen on the tail finish of Spring Break. So not even the height of Spring Break–we’re speaking concerning the finish of it.

The busiest week of final summer time was 40 minutes. There wasn’t a single week between April 16 and October 15 increased than the common for February 2024. September had weeks as little as 25 minutes; the vary for many dates in Could, August, and September was 28 to 33 minutes. That’s considerably slower than the prior-year, and likewise than February 2024 ended up being.

That’s why we anticipated barely decrease ranges in early 2024–as a result of it was the uninterrupted pattern since January 2023. It was secure to count on that the drop wouldn’t be as pronounced as post-Spring Break final yr, but it surely certain appeared like Walt Disney World was going to normalize additional and get nearer to 2019 or earlier ranges. Once more, that didn’t occur.

Above is a take a look at the every day numbers over the course of the final yr.

No days this winter have been even remotely on par with the weeks of Christmas, New 12 months’s, and even the ultimate week of vacation break–however that’s by no means the case. These are off-the-charts unhealthy, to the purpose that they distort crowd ranges for extra regular occasions of the yr.

A greater comparability is to final yr’s summer time trip or fall break. The final three weeks have been busier than any time in the course of the summer time vacationer season, with many dates on par with the briefer however unhealthy fall break window. Winter has additionally been a lot busier than the lulls throughout November or December.

One other factor that’s value mentioning, which was touched on above, is that although February 2024 was technically tied with final yr for common wait time (each at 41 minutes), it was tougher to keep away from the above-average crowds. Final yr, the worst wait occasions have been largely concentrated into the week-plus round Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras.

This yr, these two holidays fell in separate weeks. Unsurprisingly, neither of these weeks have been as busy because the mixed vacation interval final yr. (At the very least we bought one prediction proper!) And even exterior of these weeks, February 2024 had extra dates with 40+ minute common wait occasions. Final yr, against this, relied on a concentrated variety of 50-60 minute days to deliver up the general common, offsetting the 30-40 minute days within the first half of the month and last few days.

In different phrases, there have been extra busy days in February 2024 than February 2023, however fewer extraordinarily busy days.

February 2024 being the primary month within the final yr that wasn’t down as in comparison with the identical month within the prior-year can be important as a result of February 2023 was nonetheless in the course of the interval of pent-up demand, even when it didn’t attain the identical heights as 2022. On a number of earnings calls final yr, Disney’s CEO and/or CFO indicated that the slowdown in attendance and occupancy at Walt Disney World got here after they lapped the Fiftieth Anniversary. That “celebration” ended March 31, 2023.

The precise slowdown, as mentioned above, began a number of weeks after that. Which is smart. Fortunately Ever After and TRON Lightcycle Run debuted in early April, and every prompted a surge in crowds. Whereas each of these choices are nonetheless extremely widespread, the increase they gave to total crowd ranges got here and went fairly shortly.

That, or the drop-off post-Fiftieth and pent-up demand interval would’ve been even worse however for Fortunately Ever After and TRON Lightcycle Run, and people two issues helped buoy attendance. Or, who is aware of, perhaps there was a number of hype for the brand new menu at Lunching Pad and households deliberate journeys round that.

It’s potential that exactly this state of affairs is taking part in out at EPCOT proper now. Above is the weekly wait occasions knowledge for EPCOT from the beginning of 2022 till now. It is probably not instantly obvious since there are not any sharp spikes, however EPCOT simply ended its busiest 5-week stretch within the final yr, and considered one of its worst stretches since 2022. And in contrast to the opposite busy timeframes round Thanksgiving and Christmas/NYE 2022, this 5-week window was constantly crowded. EPCOT is outperforming all different parks at Walt Disney World proper now (relative to February 2023–not in absolute phrases).

It’s actually type of wild. EPCOT debuted Remy’s Ratatouille Journey, Harmonious, Beacons of Magic, Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind–to not point out a bunch of smaller-scale stuff (Connections, Membership Cool, Creations Store, and many others.) in late 2021 and all through 2022.

None of that moved the needle as a lot as merely filling within the Big EPCOT Grime Pit™️ and presenting a brand new nighttime spectacular that wasn’t unhealthy/hideous. That’s very reductionist, clearly, however that’s undoubtedly the large driver. And it makes me really feel vindicated in repeatedly saying that Walt Disney World was leaving cash on the desk by dragging its ft on the Central Backbone redesign.

It’s additionally potential that that is completely coincidental. Wait occasions at Disney’s Hollywood Studios have been trending down since February 20, however I’m not going to attribute that to an icy reception to the brand new Coke stand, Ice Chilly Hydraulics, that opened on February 20. EPCOT eradicating the maze of development partitions and reopening the middle of the park for the primary time in 4 years feels a bit totally different.

In any case, wait occasions are up year-over-year at EPCOT and (anecdotally) seems like crowds are even worse. It’s tough to say how lengthy it’ll maintain this momentum, however my guess is for some time. EPCOT is the native’s park and it nonetheless has extra to unveil all through this yr. If CommuniCore Corridor debuts, brings extra substance again to occasions, and a brand new summer time pageant debuts…EPCOT may conceivably surpass its 2022 recognition.

Regardless, it’s nonetheless too early to name this a pattern that’ll proceed for the remainder of the yr, however indicators are pointing to that being the case. Go to Orlando has reported that resort bookings for 2024 are already outpacing final yr by over 5%, and advance airline ticket gross sales into Orlando are additionally up within the first quarter of 2024 by roughly 10%.

These numbers are usually not conclusive of upper attendance at Walt Disney World, however they definitely aren’t constructive alerts for anybody hoping for decrease crowd ranges. Nonetheless, it’s noteworthy that Disney itself didn’t talk about forward-looking occupancy or attendance for Walt Disney World on the newest earnings name; silence normally means it’s not constructive–if it have been, they’d brag about it.

Alternatively, this may be a slight ‘reverberation’ after the pent-up demand of 2022. That 2023 was the ‘break’ yr for households that go to Walt Disney World semi-frequently, and so they’re returning in 2024. Fears of a recession are diminishing, inflation is easing, actual wages are growing, client confidence is enhancing, reductions are getting higher, and insurance policies are returning nearer to pre-closure norms. All of those components could also be fueling “re-revenge journey,” a time period we made up that has a sure understated stupidity to it.

For its half, Walt Disney World could possibly be doing what’s essential to incentivize followers to return, pulling the right “levers,” and making coverage adjustments which can be seen favorably by company. That might all imply that Walt Disney World’s numbers are usually not “boast-worthy” on the corporate’s earnings calls, however are trending again upwards after a gradual ~8 months from mid-April by mid-December of final yr.

Above is a graph exhibiting common annual wait occasions for Walt Disney World since 2014. It may be stunning to see 2024 tied with 2022 because the busiest yr ever, however that’s extremely deceptive since we’re solely 2 months into 2024. On the very least, the months of Could, August and September will drag down this common. That is extra to underscore the rise in wait occasions and crowd ranges during the last decade.

The underside line is that it could possibly be a bounce-back yr for Walt Disney World. One not on par with the stratospheric heights reached in 2022 (as a consequence of a singular set of circumstances that’ll hopefully by no means be repeated), however nonetheless increased than any yr between 2014 and 2019. So not absolutely like revenge journey, however perhaps a lite model of it?

Or perhaps not. It’s additionally potential that folks noticed or heard concerning the horrendous warmth and humidity final late summer time or early fall low season, and at the very least a few of these with versatile journey dates moved their journeys to winter. (Even with increased crowds, arguably a savvy transfer!) Talking of the summer time and past, there’s possible a portion of semi-regular Central Florida guests who will hit pause on plans till Epic Universe–to the extent that occurs, it’s extra possible within the second half of the yr. It’s additionally potential that the joy for EPCOT is exhausted quickly.

Lastly, Tiana’s Bayou Journey may accomplish the comparatively uncommon feat of being a brand new headliner that provides extra crowd-absorbing capability than it induces demand. (Which means that fewer individuals may e book journeys particularly for it than TRON Lightcycle Run final yr, for instance, and Magic Kingdom wait time averages, as a complete, may lower even when TBA is a high 3 wait time in MK.)

All of those are merely potential components which may have a bearing on crowd ranges and wait occasions. This stuff might or might not even occur, within the first place. Not solely that, but it surely’s not an exhaustive listing–there are possible a dozen-plus contributing components I’m probably overlooking.

No matter occurs within the medium time period over the course of 2024 with re-revenge journey at Walt Disney World (or not), we’re fairly assured that, within the close to time period, March 2024 solely will get worse from right here. Within the quick future (and up to date previous!), the excellent news is that the parks are at present in a post-Presidents’ Day lull–late February and early March stay good occasions to go to, at the very least relative to the remainder of the final month and the rest of this month.

The unhealthy information is that this can begin winding down very quickly. As we’ve warned earlier than, all bets are off as soon as Spring Break season arrives, and that’ll begin round March 8, 2024. That first week received’t be horrible, however crowds will get unhealthy the next Friday by the remainder of the month. (See the March 2024 Crowd Calendar and Spring Break 2024 Crowd Calendar for extra.)

That’ll quantity to over 3 weeks of elevated attendance at Walt Disney World, which needs to be sufficient to make March 2024 not simply tied with March 2023 when it comes to crowds, however really surpass it. That’s really not a very daring guess, as Easter falling in March 2024 (as in comparison with April 2023) ought to make {that a} comparatively foregone conclusion. On the flip aspect, April 2024 needs to be slower than April 2023 because of the absence of Easter. Nonetheless, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see how the subsequent two months really play out, and whether or not they present any diploma of certainty concerning the trajectory of crowd ranges for the rest of 2024. My guess is that we received’t have any extra concrete solutions till the second half of April and Could 2024.

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YOUR THOUGHTS

Stunned or unsurprised that February 2024 was as busy as final yr? Assume that is going to be the yr of re-revenge journey at Walt Disney World? What has your expertise been with crowds at Walt Disney World up to now in Winter 2024? Have you ever been shocked by the wait occasions or congestion in January or February? Have you ever encountered ‘lifeless’ days throughout this time? Do you agree or disagree with our tackle the crowds? In case you visited WDW throughout January or February 2018-2020, what was your expertise with wait occasions then (versus now)? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!