Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Disney World

“It’s usually the busiest time of yr, however this summer season has been gradual at Walt Disney World,” “Take a look at Observe shouldn’t go down proper as peak season begins,” and “the parks needs to be packed however our dates have been lifeless” are issues we’ve heard lately–together with loads of comparable sentiment. This comes as no shock, since summer season crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the final a number of years.

The one factor summer season hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first printed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the standard knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer season crowds weren’t as unhealthy as prior to now. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.

Whereas so much has modified within the 7 (!!!) years since that put up was printed, its sentiment rings true immediately. The reasons for decrease crowds in June and July apply nearly equally in 2024 as they did in 2016-2018. There clearly have been some main adjustments during the last a number of years, which is exactly why we’re revisiting this matter. So we would as nicely begin with an “replace” from 2019 by way of 2023…

As we’ve famous elsewhere, Walt Disney World has not skilled a “regular” summer season in a number of years–since 2018. That is most likely a giant purpose why some followers are being caught off-guard by the summer season slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. As a result of it hasn’t been the case that summer season has persistently been gradual over the last 7 years.

There’s additionally the fact that many people Walt Disney World followers are dinosaurs (in a great way!). A few of us are engaged on prolonged timelines, and we are inclined to discuss with the third gate because the Disney-MGM Studios (or just “MGM”), nonetheless groan about appetizers and ideas now not being included on the Disney Eating Plan, or suppose that they “simply” reimagined Spaceship Earth (the present model is now the longest-running).

No shock that it takes us some time to regulate to adjustments in crowd traits–we typically nonetheless consider February or October because the low season, and, because it seems, summer season as peak season.

Let’s begin this recap with Summer season 2019, which was gradual–very gradual. That was within the lead-up to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, throughout a window we dubbed the “Pre-Star Wars Stoop.” Mainly, followers have been suspending visits till after that new land opened, leading to summer season being even slower than the (new) regular.

Low attendance and resort occupancy through the first few months truly pushed Disney to maneuver ahead that land’s debut, which is why it opened with out Rise of the Resistance. (There have been additionally distinctive offers that yr, together with an unprecedented three waves of Free Eating.)

Then there was Summer season 2020. The notorious yr of the COVID closure. June broke data for low crowd ranges…as a result of all 4 parks have been closed. The phased reopening of the theme parks started on July 11, with all 4 Walt Disney World parks reopened by July 15. Even as soon as operational, the parks used reservations and solely allowed 20-30% of their full capability.

That didn’t matter throughout Summer season 2020, because the parks couldn’t even hit that low mark. Suffice to say, the early a part of the phased reopening was considerably slower than even the brand new regular and was an anomaly for apparent causes. Anybody who has blocked what occurred out their reminiscence goes to rightfully disregard wait occasions knowledge from the second half of 2020.

Then got here Summer season 2021. That is the place issues get actually fascinating! Vacationers had been anxiously awaiting the top of well being security protocol, ready to e-book holidays. And after months of half-measures and rumors, Walt Disney World ended all COVID-era restrictions on June 15, 2021. The one downside? They didn’t announce these adjustments till June 11.

Since there’s a lag between reserving and touring, crowds didn’t actually warmth up till July (versus Florida-wide stats displaying airports and resorts doing blockbuster numbers from early June). From there, wait occasions knowledge elevated each single week till early August. I’ll always remember our bonkers July 28 go to to Magic Kingdom, which was the busiest day since March 2020.

That was additionally the day that Walt Disney World introduced they’d reinstate indoor face masks guidelines as of July 30. And with that, the revenge journey get together got here to a crashing conclusion–or at the least, a short lived pause.

Enter Summer season 2022, the “do over” season for pent-up demand. Whereas the peak of the post-COVID journey occurred that winter and spring, the complete yr was busy. That included June and July. Wait occasions for each months have been nicely above-trend, which was true for actually each single month of 2022.

From my perspective, what’s extra fascinating than than total month-to-month numbers is the trajectory of crowds. Summer season wait occasions peaked in early June and decreased persistently from there–the precise reverse of the yr prior! On this case, the explanation was very completely different: rising fuel costs, inflation, and fears concerning the broader financial system.

Nonetheless, it was a scorching summer season at Walt Disney World by any affordable account. It will thus be silly to match the final two years to 2022 until doing so within the context of the exhaustion of pent-up demand (as now we have performed). In any other case, you run the chance of falling right into a narrative about each season/month/week/day experiencing a slowdown. When actually, it’s a reversion to the imply.

That brings us to Summer season 2023. Final summer season wasn’t that irregular, however did have its personal distinctive wrinkles. The massive one which garnered mainstream media protection was how Independence Day was downright lifeless at Walt Disney World. It was such a sizzling matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a complete and unseasonably unhealthy climate, even by summer season in Orlando requirements. He wasn’t improper, however that was additionally solely a part of the story–Disney had overly aggressive ticket blockouts that have been the overriding concern.

Aside from that, what I discovered considerably stunning about final summer season was that it had ‘twin peaks.’ There was one peak exactly once you’d anticipate in a traditional (2016-2018) summer season across the final week of June. (It will’ve been early July, however for these blockouts.) However there was one other peak on the finish of July. My finest concept is that this was a ‘final hurrah’ for households wanting to go to earlier than college went again into session in August–however it’s simply that, a concept.

Regardless, summer season crowd ranges have been decrease throughout the board. Definitely not on par with the low season and even shoulder season, however positively not what you’d anticipate should you final skilled summer season at Walt Disney World earlier than 2016. It was downright pleasant! Properly…as long as you ignore the dreadful climate. Minor asterisk.

In spite of everything of that, we arrive at Summer season 2024. Under is a take a look at weekly wait occasions not simply from this yr, however from the beginning of 2022 to indicate pent-up demand in motion, in addition to the exhaustion thereof. (As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.)

Crowds to date this yr have been in all places. The primary three months have been busier than anticipated, the primary time there have been month-to-month will increase in wait time averages as in comparison with the prior yr since January 2023. (That means that Jan/Feb/March 2024 have been busier than Jan/Feb/March 2023.) This led us to theorize about Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024–a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand, which means followers visited in 2022, took a yr off, and have been now returning.

The idea didn’t maintain up for lengthy. April dropped like a rock, and though May very well did improve a bit (because of final yr having a really low ground), now June 2024 is down significantly. Final June, the common wait time was 37 minutes–that’s a 5/10 or average crowd stage. June 2024 is seeing common wait occasions of 33 minutes, for a low stage common of three/10. That’s solely a few minutes, however it does quantity to 2 ranges–and all provides up over the course of the day.

Most notable is Magic Kingdom, which has a 25 minute common for a crowd stage of 1/10 in June 2024. That is down as in comparison with 31 minutes for 4/10 final yr. (When you’re questioning concerning the resort-wide vs. Magic Kingdom discrepancy, it’s as a result of common wait occasions for every crowd stage fluctuate per park–DHS is the worst, MK is one of the best.) Hollywood Studios has additionally seen an enormous drop. On the different finish of the spectrum, EPCOT is comparatively unchanged. Proof optimistic that folks truly love CommuniCore Corridor? Or perhaps they only hate Large Grime Pits?!

It’s additionally price mentioning that wait occasions are additionally rising as of this week, with immediately (June 19, 2024) having crowd ranges of 5/10. Though three days is simply too early to name it a pattern, this gradual improve is exactly what we’d anticipate to see occurring within the two weeks main as much as Independence Day, with a gradual downslope within the two weeks after.

With that clarification and up to date historical past out of the way in which, let’s discuss theories as to why summer season is slower now (2016-2019; 2023-2024) than it was again within the day…

The largest purpose for decrease crowds through the summer season is pricing. This was extra apparent again after we first printed this put up, because the pattern grew to become very seen within the couple of years after Walt Disney World moved to seasonal ticket pricing. That solely accelerated as soon as date-based charges have been launched for multi-day tickets, and with summer season being one of many dearer occasions of the yr.

Anyway, for each tickets and resort rooms, summer season pricing tends to be nicely above-average from Memorial Day by way of the primary weekend of August. To make certain, there are occasions when room charges and ticket costs spike increased (a lot increased), notably round holidays and spring break. Nonetheless, no different multi-month interval has the identical sustained stage of upper costs.

Recognizing the fact that summer season costs have discouraged guests, Walt Disney World has sought to treatment this with ticket offers (the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for most of the people). They’ve additionally launched a bevy of massive reductions, together with a reprise of the favored Free Eating supply.

All of that has positively moved the needle for 2024 (which means numbers could be even worse however for these promos!), however it’s nonetheless not sufficient. The common customer to Walt Disney World doesn’t do a lot planning–many take a look at costs on the web site as soon as, and if that’s out of their price range, they don’t go to.

For a lot of guests, the elevated costs in June and July are important. Between resorts and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer season trip could possibly be over $1,000 for a household of 5, and that’s sufficient to justify suspending a go to for many individuals. Even a 1-day summer season go to may value an additional $100 or so for a household.

In fact, it additionally doesn’t matter for some households. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for them to go to because of college breaks, in order that’s once they go. That is the rationale for summer season being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer season has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very purpose.

Nonetheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, studying (and dealing!) remotely, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle.

There has positively been a normalization of crowd ranges, and distant college/work together with hybrid work/play journeys are among the many main explanations. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from increasingly more readers who do precisely this. We will’t again it up with onerous stats, however it passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.

This brings us to the following huge issue, which is climate. Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. Vacationers can not shortly pivot and people already booked gained’t cancel–however they’ll doubtless spend much less time within the parks per day. Equally as important, they could possibly be shifting journeys away from the summer season months, because of extra studies of oppressive climate.

Issues have been fairly unhealthy final summer season. The Orlando space noticed record-setting highs on a number of events, and had temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “looks like” temperatures nicely above 100º. In that type of warmth, you may as well wager that many Annual Passholders opted to skip their weekend day journey.

In fact, it’s no information that summer season is unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida. This isn’t a latest growth, so that you may argue that it shouldn’t quantity to a change. Nonetheless, the final couple summers have been particularly brutal, and as extra individuals avail themselves of on-line planning sources, vacationers turn into extra cognizant of simply how sizzling and humid summers are in Florida.

Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a state of affairs the place households have data and incentive to not go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip college may merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.

After brutal climate final June by way of August, I questioned the knowledge of visiting this time of yr. And but, we did once more for previews of Tiana’s Bayou Journey…simply as one other warmth wave arrived. Whereas I “need to” return for analysis throughout all months of the yr, summer season is solely undesirable for a household trip.

One other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer season numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can not schedule runDisney races or outside ESPN Extensive World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. At the very least, not with out dire penalties as a result of warmth and humidity.

EPCOT additionally doesn’t have a summer season competition for the primary time since 2020, a transfer that actually shocked us–we actually anticipated one thing for the launch of CommuniCore. Regardless, this should be primarily based within the sensible actuality that summer season festivals merely will not be as widespread with locals or vacationers. They’re not “price it” for Disney to run.

Then there’s the Disney Conferences enterprise for company occasions, which has fewer excessive profile conventions on the summer season schedule. Whereas I can not converse to it with authority, I’d assume Disney Weddings is an analogous story. (It’s additionally not as impactful on attendance both approach.)

There are doubtless different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer season attendance has been down. Different components could be at play, and in combination could have a noticeable impression, however I believe these variables could be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.

Lastly, there’s the chance that the overhaul of Incapacity Entry Service to scale back abuse and misuse is having a optimistic impression on wait occasions. This was one of many driving forces behind the crackdown, and it’ll occur. Truthfully, I’m type of shocked by the entire cynicism about this being solely to push extra Lightning Lane gross sales. That’ll additionally occur, however it’s each.

As we’ve stated repeatedly in different contexts, queueing is a zero-sum recreation. In case you have one class of friends benefitting disproportionately from a sure system, whether or not that be DAS or Lightning Lanes, there’s essentially one other class, standby friends, who’re deprived. This isn’t even theoretical! Disney has been sued over lodging for disabled friends prior to now, and these stats have come out throughout discovery and testimony.

Regardless, I don’t suppose the crackdown is considerably transferring the needle but. Properly, it most likely is as of the final week or so, however it wasn’t like flipping a swap the day that the DAS adjustments rolled out. It will take time for uptake and the brand new DAS customers to work their approach by way of the system. That’ll positively be a contributing issue to decrease year-over-year wait occasions from the second half of June and past, although.

Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Tiana’s Bayou Journey opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Stoop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of friends postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor have been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.

They have been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating matter in and of itself (certainly one of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given friends chilly toes about planning round them), however past the scope of this put up. Regardless, I’ve a really tough time believing that Tiana’s Bayou Journey has extra drawing energy than both of these. (Nation Bear Musical Jamboree, however…)

If we’re theorizing about postponed journeys for brand new issues, I’d be inclined to claim that Epic Universe is having a much more important impression on Walt Disney World than Tiana’s Bayou Journey. Though that’s at Common Orlando, there’s apparent overlap, and a brand new park has far more drawing energy than a reimagined trip.

Furthermore, Common’s summer season slowdown is much more pronounced than Walt Disney World’s (2024 vs. 2023 per wait occasions knowledge). That’s precisely what you’d anticipate to see if a significant variety of individuals are delaying visits–a serious impression on Common and spillover at Walt Disney World.

In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to date in Summer season 2024, with crowd ranges of round 3/10. It’s additionally true that this isn’t actually a latest growth. That’s, until you’re evaluating to the pent-up demand interval, by which case we may have articles about each single time of the yr, contending that [insert month] is now low season. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a couple of years pre-COVID closures, and why it appears notable this yr is as a result of issues have been irregular for therefore many summers that it’s onerous to recollect what regular even is nowadays.

Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer season all of the sudden seems like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. When you beforehand dominated out a summer season trip to Walt Disney World, think about the chance that you just did so for good purpose. I’m not saying you’ll have a foul time–as we frequently say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is best than an ideal day at house.” That’s true as all the time.

What I’ll say is that no matter “positive aspects” you’ll expertise throughout summer season at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions can be worn out by subjectively inferior the whole lot else. When you pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation.

Not simply because I like Christmas, however as a result of I do know I may overcome the upper crowd ranges by advantage of fine technique or, fairly merely, spending extra hours within the parks per day due to much less weather-induced fatigue. Said in a different way, it’s infinitely simpler to beat the crowds than it’s the climate.

When you’re already wanting ahead to Summer season 2025, hoping for the same state of affairs, it’s most likely price mentioning that “summer season is just not peak season” is just not the identical as “summer season is low season.” On the contrary, the shoulder season (post-Spring Break by way of Memorial Day) and early fall low season (mid-August after faculties return into session by way of fall break in late September or early October) are nonetheless slower than summer season. June and July are now not two of the busiest months of the yr, as they as soon as have been. That doesn’t imply they’re two of the slowest. There are different choices moreover these extremes.

Within the near-term, I additionally wouldn’t rely on Walt Disney World’s summer season crowds staying this low. Wait occasions and attendance are nearly actually going to regularly begin rising heading into the top of this month, particularly since Disney didn’t make the identical mistake with ticket blockouts for Independence Day 2024 and Free Eating ‘season’ begins quickly. As famous above, crowd ranges are already reaching the 5/10 or average vary, and I wouldn’t be in the least shocked to see 7/10 days earlier than the month is over and thru mid-July.

My expectation is that 3/10 crowd ranges are within the rearview mirror for this summer season, to not be seen once more till the second week of August. When you wished gentle crowds and excessive warmth, you most likely already missed your window of alternative. Properly, not for the latter…however that’s most likely not a lot of a silver lining.

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Your Ideas

Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer season crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits through the fall months that comply with this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions beneath within the feedback!